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Australia forecasts more deaths than births by 2060s

By Drooid · Sep 21, 2026, 3:20 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Australia Treasury Demographic Forecast

Australia’s Treasury predicts deaths will outnumber births for the first time by the 2060s.
The Intergenerational Report says fertility is about 1.5 now and may fall to 1.34.
Baseline net overseas migration is set at 235,000 people per year.
Baseline real GDP per person is forecast to rise from $99,200 to $157,300 in 40 years.
A scenario with 50,000 fewer migrants cuts 2065-66 GDP per person by $400.

Summary

Matt Canavan Rejects Bonus

Treasury says negative gearing and the 50% capital gains tax discount inflate investor home ownership.
Finance Minister Katy Gallagher pledged expanded early education, a three-day guarantee and longer paid parental leave.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan rejected a baby-bonus revival, favouring assistance tied to personal work effort.
Female workforce participation is expected to rise, narrowing the gender gap to 5.4 points by 2065-66.

History

Historical Context

In 2005 Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported the population slipped below 127 million—the first post-war decline—and a fertility rate of 1.26. The shift, already visible with 38 % of citizens over 60 in 2014, spurred restrictive immigration policies. Australia’s Treasury now warns of a similar slowdown, prompting Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Nationals leader Matt Canavan to discuss tax incentives and expanded childcare.

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Australia Treasury Demographic Forecast

Australia’s Treasury predicts deaths will outnumber births for the first time by the 2060s.
The Intergenerational Report says fertility is about 1.5 now and may fall to 1.34.
Baseline net overseas migration is set at 235,000 people per year.
Baseline real GDP per person is forecast to rise from $99,200 to $157,300 in 40 years.
A scenario with 50,000 fewer migrants cuts 2065-66 GDP per person by $400.

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