Full Breakdown
Liberals Hold Federal Lead While Conservatives Grapple with Internal Dissent
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
On September 21, 2026, Liaison Strategies released its weekly federal tracker showing the Liberal Party at 45 % support among decided and leaning voters, a 14-point lead over the Conservative Party at 31 %. The New Democratic Party rose to 15 %, while the Bloc Québécois, Greens, People’s Party and others remained in single digits. The poll recorded Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal approval at 65 % with 28 % disapproval.
Background & Context
The Liberal advantage follows a federal election in which the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, captured 41 % of the vote and 144 seats, later reduced by defections. Poilievre’s leadership, secured by an 88 % vote in a January review, now faces growing unease among caucus members, who cite poor byelection performance and a “low morale” atmosphere tied to the ongoing U.S.–Canada trade dispute.
Data & Statistics
- National voting intention: Liberals 45 %, Conservatives 31 %, NDP 15 %, Bloc 6 %, Greens 2 %, People’s Party 1 % (margin of error ± 2.5 pp).
- Prime Minister Carney approval: 65 % approve, 28 % disapprove.
- Regional splits: Ontario – Liberals 48 % vs. Conservatives 33 %; Quebec – Liberals 45 % vs. Bloc 25 % and Conservatives 18 %; Alberta – Conservatives 51 % vs. Liberals 30 %; Prairies – Conservatives 42 % vs. Liberals 37 %.
- Youth attitudes: 71 % of voters aged 18-34 approve of Carney; among them party preferences are Liberals 35 %, Conservatives 28 %, NDP 24 %.
- Conservative leader favorability: Pierre Poilievre 35 % favourable, 51 % unfavourable; Deputy leader Melissa Lantsman 32 % favourable, 30 % unfavourable.
Official Statements & Responses
- Melissa Lantsman, deputy leader, said the Penticton retreat would help the party “come together” and that “changes” to the Conservative playbook are planned for the fall, while affirming Poilievre will remain leader.
Criticism & Opposition
One unnamed MP warned that an ouster of Poilievre via the Reform Act could split the party, while another suggested that keeping Poilievre in place through another election might be less divisive.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The Conservatives have not built on last week's modest recovery. The gap is back to 14 points, with the Liberals at 45% and the Conservatives at 31%. These are small weekly changes, but there is no sustained narrowing of the Liberal lead in the latest results.” — Principal, Liaison Strategies
- “I think as a Conservative, I have a medium-term optimism that Canadians are about to hire us back to clean up the economy.” — MP Michelle Rempel Garner
Why It Matters
The sustained Liberal lead, combined with a high approval rating for Prime Minister Carney, underscores the challenges the Conservatives face in translating regional strengths—particularly in Alberta and the Prairies—into a national surge. Internal dissent and strategic uncertainty risk further eroding the party’s ability to capitalize on any weaknesses in the Liberal government, especially as trade tensions with the United States dominate the political agenda.