Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Hits Career Low Amid Iran War and Cost-of-Living Pressures
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Core Event: Record-Low Approval and Republican Discontent
A Reuters/Ipsos poll closed on September 21 found President Donald Trump’s overall approval at 32 %, the lowest of his career. Among Republicans, approval of his job performance fell to 73 %, down from 82 % a week earlier, while only 17 % approved of his handling of the cost of living—the issue voters say will decide the November 3 midterms. For the first time, more Republicans disapproved of his cost-of-living policies (51 %) than approved (44 %).
Background & Context: Iran war and economic backdrop
Trump returned to the White House on January 20 2025 promising to tame inflation and end foreign wars. In February 2025 he launched a war on Iran that raised gasoline and diesel prices and fed broader inflation concerns. The conflict has cut a significant share of Middle-East oil output, prompting businesses to pass higher fuel costs to consumers. Voters repeatedly cite the rising cost of living as the top factor shaping their midterm choices.
Data & Statistics: Poll landscape
| Source | Overall approval | Republican approval | Cost-of-living approval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Ipsos (Sept 21) | 32 % | 73 % (down from 82 %) | 17 % |
| American Research Group (Sept 16-20) | 29 % | 65 % | 26 % (economy) |
| The Economist (Sept 15) | 35 % approve, 60 % disapprove | – | – |
| Civiqs rolling poll | 33 % | – | – |
| Marquette Law School (Sept 2-9) | 37 % | – | 19 % (inflation) |
The spread shows a consistent downward trend. Republican support for immigration remains high (79 % in the Reuters/Ipsos poll), yet overall enthusiasm is waning.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Trump told reporters the United States is “hopefully toward the end” of the war with Iran, suggesting a possible diplomatic shift even as fighting continues in Yemen.
Criticism & Opposition
Political scientists warn the dip may signal deeper electoral risks. Costas Panagopoulos of Northeastern University linked the drop to “even highly supportive voters can become less approving when they are dissatisfied with specific outcomes.” Grant Reeher emphasized that “voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval,” suggesting turnout, not vote switching, could be decisive in the midterms.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Surveys report approval ranging from 29 % (ARG) to 35 % and 33 % (Civiqs). The Reuters/Ipsos poll provides a detailed Republican breakdown, while the ARG poll aggregates all respondents without party-specific data. No source offers a unified projection of how the slump will translate into congressional seat changes, leaving a gap in understanding the electoral impact.
What’s Next
Republicans must defend narrow majorities in the November 3 midterms. Trump has pledged that the Iran war will end “immediately after” the election, but Tehran shows no sign of conceding. Polls indicate that 82 % of respondents—across party lines—expect the conflict to continue for an “extended period.” The outcome of the midterms will determine whether the GOP can sustain its agenda amid a president whose approval sits at historic lows.