Full Breakdown
UN Secretary-General Race Stalls as Candidates Grapple with P5 Veto Threats
By Drooid · · How we work
The Current Stalemate in the Selection Process
The 15-member UN Security Council held its third informal straw poll. Costa Rica’s former vice-president Rebeca Grynspan received nine “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes and one “no opinion”. Guyana’s former foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett followed with eight “encourage”, six “discourage” and one “no opinion”. Argentina’s IAEA chief Rafael Grossi earned five “encourage” and eight “discourage” votes. The next step will be a colour-coded ballot that reveals which, if any, P5 members are casting “discourage” votes.
Background & Context
Secretary-General António Guterres will leave office on 31 December after two terms. His successor will inherit a reform programme aimed at deep cost cuts, including staff reductions and budget consolidations. With a European incumbent, Latin America is widely viewed as the next region, but the process remains opaque: candidates are not formally nominated, and the Security Council’s informal votes are the decisive hurdle before the General Assembly’s formal appointment.
Candidate Standings and Vote Totals
- Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica): 9 encourage, 5 discourage, 1 no opinion.
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (Guyana): 8 encourage, 6 discourage, 1 no opinion.
- Rafael Grossi (Argentina): 5 encourage, 8 discourage, 2 no opinion.
- Olara Otunnu (Uganda): 5 encourage, 7 discourage, 3 no opinion.
- Macky Sall (Senegal): 5 encourage, 9 discourage, 1 no opinion.
- Ivonne A-Baki (Ecuador): 0 encourage, 10 discourage, 5 no opinion.
- Michelle Bachelet (Chile): withdrew on 19 September after receiving 1 encourage and 11 discourage votes.
Official Statements & Responses
U.S. officials have indicated that the race may hinge on “horse-trading” between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the United States potentially accepting a candidate favoured by China if it is tolerable to Washington.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on which P5 members issued the “discourage” votes against Grynspan. PassBlue suggests China and Russia may account for two of her five discouragements, while other diplomatic contacts have not confirmed the nationalities of the veto-capable votes. Until the colour-coded ballot is conducted, the precise veto risk remains unknown.
What’s Next
The Security Council is expected to conduct the colour-coded ballot shortly after the high-level week of the General Assembly, which runs through 28 September. If no candidate emerges with nine unopposed votes, the Council may reopen the field to new entrants or consider extending Guterres’s term for an additional year.