Energy-Price Surge Broadens 2024 Senate Battleground

Six weeks before Election Day, senators from both parties say the Senate map has widened dramatically. States traditionally safe for Republicans—Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina—are now viewed as competitive, while Democrats are defending New Hampshire and seeing new opportunities in Michigan and Minnesota. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer told The Hill the map is expanding significantly, a claim Republicans dispute.

The Hill

Lawmakers point to rising gasoline, diesel and fertilizer costs as the primary driver of shifting voter mood. Voters in farm-heavy states such as Kansas and Nebraska are “irate about the beef issue” and energy prices, according to a senator who spoke to The Hill. A Fox News poll found 71 % of Americans say the administration lacks a plan to end the Iran war, and 34 % rank cost-of-living concerns above all other issues.

The Hill

• A Hill/Emerson College survey of 750 likely Kansas voters (Sept. 15-16) showed Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton ahead of incumbent Roger Marshall, 45 % to 43 %.

The Hill

• Private polling cited by a Republican source also indicates a slight Hamilton lead.

The Hill

• In Nebraska, a Wedgewood Poll of 500 likely voters (Sept. 14-16) placed incumbent Pete Ricketts ahead by four points, while a SurveyUSA poll (Sept. 8-13) gave independent Dan Osborn a four-point edge.

The Hill

• A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of 654 likely Minnesota voters (Sept. 9-14) showed a tie at 42 % between Peggy Flanagan and Michele Tafoya.

The Hill

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said the Iran war’s impact on fuel and fertilizer prices has become a major political problem, urging the White House to acknowledge the connection. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota) linked farmer frustration to President Trump’s decision to allow 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef imports, saying the move “hurt” producers. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) pledged to campaign for pediatrician Annie Andrews in South Carolina, noting the Senate lacks a physician.

The Hill

• “Donald Trump is doing everything he can to sabotage the campaigns of Republican incumbents,” — Sen. Peter Welch

The Hill

• “Clearly beef is a critical issue for us. Our producers love the president, they consider him to be one of their own, and what he did in sending a message about increasing beef supplies in the United States by bringing in outside [foreign] beef really hurt them,” — Sen. Mike Rounds

The Hill

• “She’d be great to have in our caucus. We don’t have a physician on our side of the aisle. … I’d love to see her win,” — Sen. Mark Kelly

The Hill

• “Chuck Schumer’s claim that the Senate map is expanding for Democrats is false spin meant to distract from his waning hopes of rescuing [New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate nominee] Chris Pappas and [Minnesota’s Democratic Senate nominee] Peggy Flanagan in states he once thought were safe,” — Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee

The Hill