Full Breakdown
Mexico Seeks New U.S. Trade Deal Ahead of U.S. Midterm Elections
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexico will increase purchases of U.S. goods and pursue a bilateral agreement to cut tariffs on Mexican autos, steel and aluminum. She framed the effort as a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire for “imports equal to exports.” A fourth round of United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) talks is scheduled for late September in Washington, with both sides reportedly aiming to finalize a deal before the U.S. midterm elections.
Background & Context
Mexico sends more than 80 percent of its exports to the United States, a share that has remained stable despite diversification attempts. The EU is Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, accounting for US$137 billion in 2025 trade, far below the US$964 billion in goods and services exchanged with the United States last year. In May, Mexico modernized its agreement with the EU, but analysts say Europe is unlikely to replace the U.S. for most firms.
Domestically, Mexico has taken steps to address U.S. concerns: imports from China fell 28.4 percent in the first five months of 2026, a 50-percent tariff regime was applied to non-FTA countries, and new traceability rules target steel and aluminum transshipments. The 2027 budget proposes lower spectrum fees for cellular operators, echoing a longstanding U.S. demand.
Official Statements & Responses
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that large swaths of Mexico remain under the control of narco-terrorist groups and urged stronger action against cartels, linking security cooperation to trade talks.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I would expect Canada to do the best that they can do, following up on their own interests and their own needs,” — Mr. Baker Pineda
- “You can’t compare a pressure point like potentially jailing the leader of the political movement currently governing Mexico with something like, ‘I’m going to slap a tariff on your milk and cheese and I don’t like French labels,’” — Luis Antonio Espino, a Mexican political analyst in Toronto
- “These gestures would seem to suggest that Mexico is doing everything possible to try to reach a bilateral agreement. Obviously, the trilateral agreement is off the table,” — Carlos Ramírez, a political risk consultant in Mexico City