Full Breakdown
California Billionaire Tax Faces Declining Support as Opponents Ramp Up Advertising
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Prop 40’s Shifting Poll Numbers
A new poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research in partnership with POLITICO shows that fewer than half of likely voters (45 %) now say they would back Proposition 40, the one-time 5 % tax on the assets of California’s wealthiest residents. Opposition stands at 43 % with 12 % undecided, a reversal from the February poll in which supporters held a slight edge. Jack Citrin, a political science professor at UC Berkeley and co-director of the poll, noted that the trend is moving against the measure and that the “no” side appears poised to win.
Campaign Funding Landscape
Supporters of Prop 40 have been financially outmatched. The initiative’s backing has come almost entirely from the health-care union SEIU-UHW, while billionaire opponents have already committed tens of millions of dollars to counter-campaigns and to promote rival measures that would nullify Prop 40. Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot, emphasized that the campaign is only beginning and that a “gazillion dollars” will be spent by opponents. Early advertising from the opposition, which launched its first ads in late August, has already reached a large share of the electorate—83 % of likely voters report having heard “some or a great deal” about the tax, and among those highly aware voters, opposition leads 57-38.
Political Repercussions for Governor Newsom
Governor Gavin Newsom has positioned himself as a vocal opponent of Prop 40. The poll suggests that his stance could become a liability in a future presidential bid. A plurality of registered voters, including many Democrats, perceive Newsom’s opposition as protecting “billionaires and other wealthy interests” rather than safeguarding California’s economy. Cohens argues that this creates an “issue-specific credibility problem” for Newsom, potentially alienating a segment of his coalition.
Voter Attitudes and Demographics
Support for the tax remains strong among Democratic-leaning voters, with 66 % in that group favoring the measure. Across party lines, 44 % of likely voters view billionaires as doing more harm than good, compared with 34 % who view them favorably. Among the undecided, 65 % lean toward a yes vote, indicating that moderate and independent voters are the most persuadable bloc.
Outlook and Potential Consequences
The poll identifies a narrow path forward for Prop 40. While the measure retains a base of support, the combination of aggressive opponent advertising, a pronounced funding gap, and political backlash against Governor Newsom creates significant vulnerability. If the current trends persist, the initiative could face defeat at the ballot, reshaping the debate over wealth-targeted taxation in California.