Full Breakdown
Europe Faces Fourth-Quarter Jet Fuel Shortfall, Turns to South Korea for Relief
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Projected Jet-Fuel Deficit in Q4 2026
Energy-market consultancy Energy Aspects forecasts that Europe will experience a jet-fuel shortfall of 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the final three months of 2026. By contrast, the United States is expected to run a modest surplus of 18,000 bpd, while the Asia-Pacific region is projected to have a surplus of 419,000 bpd. The imbalance follows the disruption of Middle-Eastern supplies after the outbreak of the Iran war, which eliminated roughly half of Europe’s prior jet-fuel imports from that region.
Background & Context: Disruption from the Iran Conflict
The Iran war, which began more than six months ago, sharply reduced the flow of jet fuel from the Middle East into Europe. With traditional sources curtailed, European buyers have broadened their procurement base to include the United States, Canada, Nigeria and, increasingly, South Korea. South Korean shipments to Europe reached 129,000 bpd in September, the highest level recorded since October 2022, according to commodities-intelligence firm Kpler and corroborated by LSEG data.
Data & Statistics
- Deficit: 510,000 bpd (Energy Aspects)
- U.S. surplus: 18,000 bpd (Energy Aspects)
- Asia-Pacific surplus: 419,000 bpd (Energy Aspects)
- South Korean exports to Europe (Sept 2024): 129,000 bpd (Kpler; LSEG)
- South Korean jet-fuel production (July 2024): ? 13.89 million barrels, a seven-year high (South Korean government data)
- ARA hub inventories: lowest level in seven years during the week ending 10 September
Official Statements & Responses
French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to reconvene G7 leaders “in the coming weeks” to discuss an additional release of emergency oil stocks, emphasizing the need to secure diesel, jet fuel and natural gas supplies for the months ahead. Macron highlighted that Europe’s strategic reserves contain finished fuels, offering a faster response than crude-oil releases.
Timeline
- July 2024: South Korean refinery runs reach ? 2.7 million bpd, a 16 % increase from June (South Korean government).
- Week ending 10 September (occurred): ARA hub jet-fuel inventories fall to their lowest level in seven years.
- 21 September (scheduled): Reuters report slated to present Energy Aspects’ Q4 deficit estimate of 510,000 bpd (date ledger).
Why It Matters
The shortfall pressures European airlines and downstream fuel markets, contributing to record-high diesel prices that now trade at a premium to Asian benchmarks. Reliance on distant suppliers such as South Korea heightens exposure to shipping costs, freight-rate volatility, and geopolitical shifts that could further disrupt supply chains. The situation also underscores the interconnectedness of refined-product markets: jet fuel competes with diesel and gas oil for refinery capacity, meaning changes in crude-processing rates in Asia reverberate across Europe’s broader energy landscape.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With the continent expected to remain short of jet fuel, Europe's imports are set to continue,” — James Noel-Beswick