Story perspectives

Lula and Bolsonaro Still Tied in October Runoff Polls

By Drooid · Sep 23, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Lula & Bolsonaro Tied

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain tied in runoff polls ahead of the October election.
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll of 5,015 respondents (Sep 17-22) gave Lula 47.7% and Bolsonaro 47.4% in a runoff.
A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey (Sep 18-20) of 2,006 people showed Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 45% in a runoff.
A Quaest poll found Bolsonaro leading Lula by one percentage point.

Summary

Lula Expands Welfare

Lula announced a 15% Bolsa Família increase to 691 reais, effective in October.
He pledged free GLP-1 weight-loss drugs through Brazil’s public health system.
Lula condemned U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods as election-influencing pressure while speaking at the UN General Assembly.
The Workers’ Party backs a constitutional amendment for 10-year Supreme Court terms and a minimum age of 50.

History

Historical Context

Lula created Bolsa Família in 2003 by merging Bolsa Escola (1995) and other transfers, quickly reaching 13.8 million families—about 27 % of households—by 2008. The program, administered by the Ministry of Social Development, is credited with lifting millions out of poverty and reducing inequality by roughly 20 % since 2001. Today, Lula’s pledge to boost Bolsa Família by 15 % shapes the runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro.

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Lula & Bolsonaro Tied

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain tied in runoff polls ahead of the October election.
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll of 5,015 respondents (Sep 17-22) gave Lula 47.7% and Bolsonaro 47.4% in a runoff.
A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey (Sep 18-20) of 2,006 people showed Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 45% in a runoff.
A Quaest poll found Bolsonaro leading Lula by one percentage point.

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