Full Breakdown
Hormuz Shipping Traffic Plummets as Saudi Oil Flows Shift and Prices Dip
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Sharp Decline in Vessel Transits
Preliminary data show that only two commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 22, down from ten the day before. Earlier in the week, September 21 saw 17 vessels transiting, a drop from 37 a week earlier. Before the Iran-related conflict began on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day. The figures exclude ships sailing with AIS transponders turned off, a practice that obscures the full volume of traffic.
Attacks on Vessels
Two separate incidents were reported in the strait: the Isle of Man-flagged crude tanker *LR Stephanie* was struck by an unidentified projectile, and the Liberia-flagged LPG tanker *Al Maryah* was hit while outbound. Both vessels continued without towing assistance. Responsibility for the attacks remains unconfirmed, and neither vessel appears on publicly reported Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority “non-compliant” lists.
Saudi Arabia’s Export Adjustments
Saudi Aramco restarted its East-West pipeline at a reduced rate, allowing crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to resume later in the day. Satellite-derived estimates indicate Saudi crude moving through Hormuz averaged 2.9 million barrels per day over six days to September 18, up from roughly 700,000 bpd in August. The kingdom now relies on a mix of direct Hormuz voyages and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s coast at Sohar.
Oil Market Response
Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since September 9, settling at $97.69, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to $89.41. Diesel prices rose to $6.50 a gallon, intensifying pressure on consumers.
Official Statements & Responses
- The manager of *LR Stephanie*, Universal Tanker Corp., did not comment on the incident.
- ADNOC Logistics and Services declined to discuss operational matters, including voyage planning.
- Saudi Aramco’s pipeline restart was confirmed by sources familiar with the matter.
- A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is prepared to reopen the strait within a week if the United States eases military pressure and lifts the blockade of Iranian ports.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Shipping data vary by source. Reuters reported two visible vessels on September 22, while Oilprice noted “just a dozen” commodity vessels over the same weekend, and Kpler data recorded only four tankers on a Thursday. All datasets exclude vessels operating with AIS off, leaving the true scale of traffic uncertain.
What’s Next
Iran has signaled willingness to restore full strait operations within a week, contingent on U.S. policy changes. Meanwhile, market participants are watching the upcoming U.S.–China leaders’ meeting for possible signals on secondary sanctions against Iranian crude buyers.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Responsibility for both incidents remains unconfirmed, and neither vessel has been identified on publicly reported Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) 'non-compliant' lists,” — Marisks
- “Brent at $100 and diesel at $6.50 a gallon are already squeezing consumers,” — Rystad Energy's
- “Crude is loaded in the Gulf onto shuttle tankers, taken through Hormuz, then transferred ship-to-ship off Oman, at Sohar in the Gulf of Oman,” — Noureldeen Al Hammoury, chief market strategist at Equiti Group
- “The central bank moves this week are a rational response to an energy crisis that monetary policy cannot fix,” — Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy