Full Breakdown
Toronto Mayoral Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Chow’s Lead Shrink
By Drooid · · How we work
Poll Results Show Chow’s Lead Shrink
A recent poll conducted by Liaison Strategies indicates that incumbent mayor Olivia Chow’s advantage over challenger Brad Bradford has narrowed to seven points. The survey places Chow at 47 percent of decided and leaning voters, Bradford at 40 percent, and former mayor Chris Alexander at 10 percent. The poll’s margin of error is ± 3.1 percentage points. David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, noted that “Chow’s cushion is smaller. Her lead has gone from 11 points to seven, with Chow down three points and Bradford up one.” “Chow’s cushion is smaller. Her lead has gone from 11 points to seven, with Chow down three points and Bradford up one,” — David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies
Issues Driving Voter Preferences
According to the same study, cost of living emerged as the top priority for Toronto residents, followed by housing affordability, crime and safety, and traffic congestion. These issue rankings reflect the concerns that are shaping voter decisions as the municipal election approaches in October 2026.
Support Varies Across City Regions
The poll reveals divergent patterns across the city. Chow maintains leads in downtown Toronto, while Bradford leads in Etobicoke. In the more competitive districts of North York and Scarborough, Chow leads 46 percent to 41 percent and 46 percent to 43 percent, respectively.
Survey Methodology Details
Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Data collection occurred from September 19 to September 20, 2026, employing random-digit dialing across landline and cellular networks. Results were weighted to match 2021 Census targets.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Chow’s cushion is smaller. Her lead has gone from 11 points to seven, with Chow down three points and Bradford up one,” — David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies