Full Breakdown
Putin’s Growing Risk-Taking Prompts NATO Caution Over Covert Attacks
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Escalating Covert Campaign Targets NATO
NATO’s deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming “increasingly cavalier, dangerous and risk-accepting.” He said Moscow is testing the alliance with sabotage, espionage, drone incursions and cyber operations designed to provoke an “overreaction.” Recent incidents include a suspected Russian-linked drone with explosives near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport, a disrupted plot to sabotage a drone factory outside London, and the arson of an Estonian defence company in August. While no direct conventional attack on NATO territory has been observed, officials stress that the covert campaign is “here to stay” until Russian strategic goals shift.
Background and Context
The conflict entered its fifth year in 2026 with front-line advances remaining minimal. Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign has caused fuel shortages in 80 of 83 Russian regions, according to Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the U.K. defence staff. Russian military losses are estimated at more than half a million dead, and the Kremlin continues to lose tens of thousands of troops each month, prompting speculation about another mobilisation. NATO members have increased defensive measures, imposed additional sanctions, and closed Russian cultural centres in several European capitals.
Data and Statistics
- Incidents of Russian-linked covert activity rose from 59 in March 2025 to over 210 by summer 2026, covering vandalism, propaganda, arson, sabotage and cyberattacks.
- The United Kingdom reports around 340 drone incidents near its military sites since August 2025, some traced to Russia.
- An armed drone was discovered at Leipzig airport in August, and a weapons-storage facility in Bulgaria exploded the same month; neither event has been publicly attributed to Moscow.
- An Estonian defence firm was set on fire in August, adding to the tally of unexplained attacks on NATO-adjacent states.
Official Statements & Responses
- Sir John Stringer cautioned that Putin seeks to divide Western allies and provoke NATO into a disproportionate response.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia may launch deliberate drone or missile strikes on NATO members while claiming they were accidental.
- French President Emmanuel Macron ordered a plan to protect critical infrastructure from potential drone and cyber attacks.
- Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal linked the surge in covert attacks to Western support for Ukraine and described Putin as a “rat in the corner” trying to break NATO cohesion.
- Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics emphasized that no military buildup is observed near NATO borders and that a direct attack is unlikely.
- Sir Richard Knighton noted the heavy toll of Ukraine’s energy-targeting strikes on Russia and reiterated that Putin has not abandoned his objectives in Ukraine.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
Attribution of many incidents remains uncertain. German officials blamed Moscow for the Leipzig airport drone, while the British defence establishment described the overall Russian posture as not seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Several Baltic leaders warn the covert campaign could intensify as winter approaches, suggesting a more aggressive stance than the British assessment. The Estonian defence company fire and the Bulgaria weapons-storage explosion have not been publicly linked to Russia, leaving a gap in confirming the full scope of Moscow’s covert operations.
What’s Next
Baltic officials anticipate that attacks on infrastructure may increase over the coming months, especially as winter deepens. NATO members are urged to refine response protocols to avoid escalation while maintaining support for Ukraine. No specific deadlines have been announced, but the alliance’s vigilance will shape the security environment in Europe throughout the remainder of the year.