Full Breakdown
Canada and India Near Deal on Comprehensive Economic Partnership Ahead of G20 Summit
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Accelerated Push to Seal CEPA by Mid-December
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said trade talks with India are “making good progress” and both governments aim to finalize a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) at the G20 summit on December 14-15 in Miami. Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu added negotiations are “very, very optimistic and energetic.”
Background & Context: From Diplomatic Freeze to Renewed Engagement
Bilateral talks were relaunched in March 2024 after the 2023 killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which had led to the expulsion of six Indian diplomats and a pause in negotiations. Carney’s March visit to New Delhi was the first Canadian prime-ministerial trip there since 2018.
Key Figures & Groups
- Mark Carney – Prime Minister of Canada.
- Maninder Sidhu – Minister of International Trade.
- Dinesh K. Patnaik – High Commissioner of India to Canada.
- Narendra Modi – Prime Minister of India, slated to visit Canada in mid-December.
Timeline
- March 2024 – Carney and Modi announce relaunch of CEPA negotiations at the G20 in Johannesburg.
- September 19 2024 – Sidhu says Canada is optimistic about concluding the agreement by year-end.
- Early December 2024 – Indian trade team expected in Canada; leaders likely to meet at the G20 summit.
- December 14-15 2024 – G20 summit in Miami, targeted venue for signing the CEPA.
Data & Statistics
- The Liberal government hopes the CEPA will double bilateral trade to $70 billion annually by 2030.
- In 2025, Canada exported < $4 billion of goods to India; India’s merchandise exports to Canada were about $7 billion the previous year.
- Canadian services exports to India reached $15 billion in 2025, driven largely by international students.
Why It Matters: Economic Diversification and Strategic Sectors
The CEPA is central to Canada’s strategy to reduce reliance on the United States. Key sectors under discussion include LNG, nuclear energy, and critical minerals such as graphite, nickel and zinc. India’s energy demand is projected to rise 70 % by 2040, making Canadian LNG exports valuable. Both nations also seek to address agricultural tariff asymmetries, notably India’s 10 % duty on lentils and a reinstated 30 % tariff on yellow peas.
Official Statements & Responses
Sidhu highlighted ongoing dialogues with Indian firms on accessing Canadian LNG projects and expanding nuclear cooperation, noting that investment details remain confidential.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We are making good progress in our trade negotiations with India,” — Mark Carney
- “We're having conversations with Indian firms on how they can ?access those projects, but also how they can invest and secure supply in those projects,” — Maninder Sidhu
- “I always say negotiations move at the speed of trust, and so if there is a lot of trust between both sides, negotiations move very fast,” — Dinesh K. Patnaik
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All cited outlets agree on the target of concluding the CEPA by the December G20 summit and on the broad economic objectives.
What’s Next: Final Steps Toward a December Signing
Indian trade negotiators are slated to visit Canada next month, and senior officials from both sides are expected to meet during the G20 summit on December 14-15. A formal signing ceremony is anticipated if remaining “nuance” issues—particularly pulse tariffs and investment protection—are resolved in the final weeks.