Full Breakdown
Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party Surpasses Netanyahu’s Likud in Latest Polls and Prediction Markets
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Core Event: Yashar Leads in Seat Projections and Market Odds
A Channel 12 News poll projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 23 Knesset seats, ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud at 20. The opposition bloc led by Eisenkot totals 54 seats versus the governing coalition’s 50.
Polymarket prices Yashar’s chance of winning the most seats at roughly 62 %, with Likud at about 39 %. A month earlier the odds were reversed (Likud 59 %, Yashar 41 %). Trading volume has exceeded $300,000.
Background & Context
Yashar, founded in 2025 by former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, positions itself as centre-right and quickly became the largest opposition force in polls. Netanyahu has led Likud for 27 years, shifting it toward a more conservative, religious stance.
Israel’s 120-seat Knesset requires a coalition of at least 61 seats. Arab parties hold 12 seats in the latest poll; ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism hold seven and eight seats respectively.
Data & Statistics
- Seat projections (poll): Yashar 23, Likud 20, Beyahad 13, other opposition parties 9–4 seats; Arab parties 12 seats. (Channel 12, Midgam Institute, margin of error 4.4 %).
- Polymarket odds: Yashar ? 62 % chance to win the most seats; Likud ? 39 %.
- Market activity: Trading volume just over $301,000.
- Historical shift: One month earlier Polymarket priced Likud at 59 % and Yashar at 41 %, a swing of about 20 points.
Why It Matters
The Yashar lead changes coalition calculations. Even with the most seats, Yashar will need support from smaller parties, including Arab and ultra-Orthodox blocs, to reach the 61-seat threshold. The opposition’s combined 54 seats fall short, indicating both sides must bridge ideological gaps for a stable government.
For Netanyahu, the dip in Likud’s projected seats highlights the difficulty of maintaining a coalition that traditionally relies on ultra-Orthodox and right-wing partners.
Official Statements & Responses
Polymarket clarifies that settlement will be based on the party winning the largest number of seats, not on who ultimately forms the government, underscoring that market odds reflect seat outcomes rather than prime-ministerial appointments.
What’s Next
Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to hold a Likud campaign event in Tel Aviv on September 17, 2026, as the election approaches. The timing of the general election remains undisclosed, but poll and market trends suggest campaign dynamics will intensify in the coming weeks.