Full Breakdown
Iowa Senate Race Tightens as Hinson Breaks With Trump Over Iran War
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, a three-term congresswoman from Iowa, publicly broke with President Donald Trump on Monday by calling for an “immediate end” to the war in Iran. Hours later, a Marist poll released on Tuesday showed Democrat Josh Turek leading Hinson 50 % to 42 % among Iowa’s registered voters. The race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst is now viewed as a pivotal contest that could influence control of the U.S. Senate.
Background & Context
Iowa has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, when incumbent Senator Tom Harkin defeated Republican Christopher Reed. Since then, Republicans Joni Ernst and Sen. Chuck Grassley have held the state’s two Senate seats. The 2026 midterm election, scheduled for November 3, occurs amid national concerns over the economy, inflation, fuel costs, and the ongoing Iran conflict. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter recently shifted its rating of the Iowa Senate race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” reflecting the heightened competitiveness.
Data & Statistics
- Poll methodology: 1,050 Iowa registered voters were surveyed between September 17 and later in the month.
- Results: 50 % of respondents indicated support for Turek, while 42 % favored Hinson.
- Legislative record: Hinson has voted against House resolutions directing President Trump to halt the Iran war six times, including a vote last week, and also voted against a resolution to end U.S. hostilities in Lebanon, marking a seventh such vote.
- Cook rating: The race is now classified as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.
Official Statements & Responses
- Trump endorsement: Earlier in September, President Trump posted on Truth Social that Hinson “will be an outstanding Senator” and gave his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”
- Vice-presidential comment: Vice President JD Vance later praised Hinson, saying, “I want to make a shoutout to an amazing public servant,” while noting her absence from a campaign rally in Council Bluffs.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
Both campaigns are expected to increase spending and voter outreach as the November 3 election approaches. Additional polls are likely to be released in the weeks leading up to the vote, providing further insight into whether Turek’s current lead can be sustained or if Hinson’s recent policy shift can narrow the gap.