Full Breakdown
Super El Niño Poised to Become Strongest in Over Seven-Decades
By Drooid · · How we work
Record-Breaking Forecast
The ongoing super El Niño is intensifying at a rate that could make it the strongest event in more than 75 years. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific are now more than 3 °C above average, a level that, if sustained, would set a new all-time record on the daily “oceanic Niño index” (ONI). NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) notes that, based on its three-month “relative oceanic Niño index” (RONI), values are rising but have not yet reached historic peaks through August. Nonetheless, CPC estimates a 75 % chance that the event will exceed the strength of all El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
How El Niño Shapes Weather
El Niño describes a periodic warming of central and eastern Pacific waters that recurs every three to four years. The heat released into the atmosphere can alter global weather patterns for months, influencing temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone activity. A stronger El Niño typically brings a wetter winter to the southern United States, drier conditions to Australia and Indonesia, and a milder, drier winter across the northern U.S.
Quantitative Indicators
- Sea-surface temperature anomaly: > 3 °C above average in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
- Atlantic tropical activity (as of September 10): 5 tropical storms and no hurricanes, well below the seasonal average of 8 storms and 3 hurricanes.
- Pacific tropical activity: 16 storms, including four major hurricanes, near or above average.
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Elevated, reflecting both the number and intensity of Pacific storms.
Official Statements & Responses
James Belanger, Vice President of Meteorology for The Weather Company, explains that NOAA’s CPC uses longer-term data to filter short-term fluctuations from the El Niño signal. Erica Grow Cei, NOAA public-affairs meteorologist, emphasizes that “daily and weekly changes in sea-surface temperature are not tied to El Niño impacts over the United States,” underscoring the reliance on multi-month indices for forecasting.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
- “Daily and weekly changes in sea-surface temperature are not tied to El Niño impacts over the United States,” — Erica Grow Cei
