Full Breakdown
Trump’s Mail-In Ballot Push Meets Voter Skepticism Ahead of Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
The Executive Order and Supreme Court Block
President Donald Trump has sought to end mail-in voting and voting-machine use through an executive order announced in August 2025. The order directed the U.S. Postal Service to develop a system that would block delivery of ballots to voters not on pre-submitted state lists, prompting lawsuits from 23 Democratic-led states and voting-rights groups. In March, the administration signed a follow-up order expanding those restrictions. The Supreme Court declined to clear the plan, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh noting that state and local officials lacked sufficient time to implement the rule before the election.
Poll Results on Voter Confidence and Mail-In Voting
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll of 1,280 registered voters conducted in mid-September 2026 found stark partisan divides. Forty-one percent of all respondents believe there is a “great deal” or “good amount” of fraud in mail voting; the share rises to 70 % among Republicans and 75 % among self-identified MAGA supporters, but falls to 18 % among Democrats. Only 58 % of voters remain confident the Postal Service will deliver ballots on time, a drop of 13 points since 2024.
- Mail-in usage: 24 % of voters plan to cast a mail ballot in the upcoming election, compared with 31 % who did so in the 2024 presidential race. Democrats are nearly three times as likely as Republicans to intend mail voting.
- Trust in election administration: 75 % of voters trust their state or local government to run a fair election; confidence is higher among Democrats (86 %) than Republicans (66 %).
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, expressed doubt that Trump’s fraud narrative will shift votes beyond his base, noting, “He has image problems, he has turnout problems, he has issue problems.” “He has image problems, he has turnout problems, he has issue problems,” — Lee Miringoff
Official Reactions from Election Officials
Tammy Patrick, chief programs officer of the National Association of Election Officials, said election officials breathed a “sigh of relief” after the Supreme Court’s refusal to enforce the Trump administration’s rule, describing the request as “almost an impossible ask” given the timing. She urged voters who choose mail voting to submit requests and return ballots early, either at drop boxes or by mail, depending on state options.
Implications for the Midterm Contest
The poll indicates that while a majority of voters trust local election officials, confidence in the Postal Service and belief in mail-ballot fraud remain low, especially among Republicans. These attitudes could influence turnout decisions and shape the political calculus for both parties as they head into the November midterm elections.