Full Breakdown
Hochul Maintains Nine-Point Lead Over Blakeman in Late-Stage Siena Poll
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Core Findings of the Siena Poll
The Siena Research Institute poll of likely New York voters shows Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul ahead of Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by nine points, 50 % to 41 %. Hochul’s favorability and job-approval ratings are each 48 %, while Blakeman’s favorability stands at 35 % with a 34 % disapproval rating. Two-thirds of respondents (66 %) say Hochul will win, including 37 % of Republican voters.
Regional and Demographic Breakdown
- New York City: Hochul leads 61 % to 27 %.
- Upstate: Blakeman leads 47 % to 44 %.
- Downstate suburbs: Hochul leads 48 % to 46 %.
- Independents: Blakeman holds a narrow edge, 44 % to 39 %.
- Party bases: Hochul dominates Democrats (81 % to 11 %); Blakeman dominates Republicans (88 % to 8 %).
Issue Positions and Voter Priorities
Hochul holds modest leads of four to nine points on making prices more affordable, public safety, and undocumented immigration. On large data centers, 63 % oppose a new facility after the state’s one-year moratorium expires, up from a two-to-one majority that supported the moratorium. Regarding the proposed renaming of Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” 74 % oppose the change; opposition is strongest among Democrats (93 %) and independents (76 %).
Endorsements Impact
Among likely voters, 51 % view President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman as a negative factor, while 50 % see Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul as a positive influence.
Other Statewide Races
- Attorney General: Incumbent Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 52 % to 39 %.
- Comptroller: Democrat Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 56 % to 33 %.
Official Statements & Responses
Greenberg noted that Hochul’s support has moved into positive territory while Blakeman remains in single digits, and said the poll’s findings on endorsements, issue positions, and regional splits align with earlier rounds.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Currently, Blakeman is doing a better job with Republicans, leading 88-8%, than Hochul is with Democrats, leading 81-11%.” — Steven Greenberg
- “About half of likely voters think Trump endorsing Blakeman is a negative for Blakeman’s campaign, including 69% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 24% of Republicans,” — Steven Greenberg
- “Voters still give Hochul small leads – between four and nine points – on making prices more affordable, keeping New Yorkers safe, and addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state.” — Steven Greenberg
- “ Three-quarters of Voters Oppose Trump’s Renaming Lake Ontario as Lake America “Overall, nearly three-quarters of voters, 74%, oppose Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America.” — Steven Greenberg
- “When asked in August whether they thought Hochul’s one-year moratorium on new large data centers was the right or wrong policy for the state, by a two-to-one margin, 52-25%, voters said the moratorium was the right decision. Now, an even larger majority, 63-25%, say they don’t want a new large data center built in their area of the state next year, after the moratorium expires,” — Steven Greenberg
What’s Next
The race will be decided in the November election, with voters weighing high-profile endorsements and state-level issues such as data-center development and the Lake Ontario naming controversy. The Siena poll’s margin of error of ±3.9 percentage points applies to the core questions, underscoring the competitive nature of the contest as the election approaches.