Full Breakdown
Delhi’s Monsoon Withdraws Early, Marking the Earliest Retreat Since 2002
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Early Withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon
On September 23 2026 the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon had withdrawn from Delhi and most of northwest India, two days before the usual September 25 date. The withdrawal line passed through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya, covering parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. IMD criteria include a sustained break in rainfall, reduced atmospheric moisture and an anticyclone in the lower atmosphere.
Background & Context
Delhi’s monsoon normally arrives on June 27; in 2026 it began on July 2. Historically the retreat starts around September 17 and finishes by October 15. The 2026 retreat is the earliest for Delhi since September 20 2002. The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed on September 3 that a strong El Niño had established and was expected to persist through February 2027, a condition linked to reduced rainfall across India.
Data & Statistics
- Delhi rainfall: Safdarjung observatory recorded 728.6 mm (June 1–Sept 23), about 16 % above its normal 629.7 mm. IMD’s aggregate figure shows 562.7 mm, 6 % higher than the normal 532.3 mm.
- All-India monsoon deficit: As of September 22 the country had received 706.9 mm, 15 % below the long-period average of 832.4 mm.
- Regional deficits: Punjab - 40 %; Haryana - 24 %; Rajasthan - 21 %; east and northeast India ranged from -27 % to -60 % (Meghalaya).
- Contribution to annual rainfall: The monsoon supplies roughly 70 % of India’s yearly precipitation.
- Forecasts: IMD’s August 31 bulletin projected below-normal September rainfall (under 91 % of the long-period average). Private forecaster Skymet, in an August 17 revision, projected 85 % of the average with a 70 % probability of drought.
Official Statements & Responses
The IMD said withdrawal is declared only after multiple atmospheric indicators align, noting that isolated showers may still occur. A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal was observed moving westward on September 23, with a high likelihood of reaching the north-Andhra Pradesh–south-Odisha coast that night. Skymet’s vice-president Mahesh Palawat warned that easterly winds could bring rain to Delhi around September 26-27, but IMD forecasts projected clear skies and no rain through the end of the week, including September 27. The WMO warned that the intensifying El Niño could produce a milder winter and reduced rains for Rabi-season crops.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Rainfall totals for Delhi: IMD’s figure (562.7 mm) conflicts with Safdarjung’s measurement (728.6 mm); the discrepancy remains unresolved.
- Impact on agriculture: The specific effect of the early Delhi withdrawal on local cropping patterns is not quantified in available reports.
What’s Next
IMD bulletins issued on September 21 indicated favourable conditions for further withdrawal from the remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Saurashtra-Kutch, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and western Uttar Pradesh over the next two to three days. Forecasts call for clear to partly cloudy skies in Delhi, with no rain expected on September 27. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast for eastern and central India through late September, with thunderstorms and potential flooding in states such as Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Pradesh and the southern peninsula, while the capital remains largely dry.
