Full Breakdown
AL West Race Could Crown a Sub-.500 Division Champion – A Rare MLB First
By Drooid · · How we work
The Immediate Situation
With only a handful of games left, the American League West could produce an unprecedented outcome. After Tuesday’s contests, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros were reported as tied for first with records around the .500 mark (78-79 in one account, 78-78 in another). No full-season division champion has ever finished below .500, and the 12-team postseason format introduced in 2022 raises the odds that a losing team could slip into October.
Historical Context: When Weak Teams Made the Playoffs
A review of past postseason participants shows that sub-.500 clubs have occasionally broken through, usually when the playoff field was temporarily enlarged:
| Year | Team | Record | Division/Seed | Postseason Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | New York Mets | 82-79 | NL East 1st | Lost WS 4-3 |
| 1984 | Kansas City Royals | 84-78 | AL West 1st | Lost ALCS 3-0 |
| 1987 | Minnesota Twins | 85-77 | AL West 1st | Won WS |
| 1995 | Colorado Rockies* | 77-67 | NL West 2nd (WC) | Lost NLDS 3-1 |
| 2005 | San Diego Padres | 82-80 | NL West 1st | Lost NLDS 3-0 |
| 2006 | St. Louis Cardinals | 83-78 | NL Central 1st | Won WS |
| 2017 | Minnesota Twins | 85-77 | AL Central 2nd (WC) | Lost WC game |
| 2023 | Miami Marlins | 84-78 | NL East 3rd (WC) | Lost WC series |
| 2023 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 84-78 | NL West 2nd (WC) | Lost WS |
| 2025 | Cincinnati Reds | 83-79 | NL Central 3rd (WC) | Lost NLWCS |
\*First NL wild-card in a season shortened by the 1994-95 work stoppage. These cases show that a losing record can still reach, and sometimes advance in, the postseason.
Key Numbers for the 2026 AL West
- Rangers record: reported as 78-79 and 78-78 (Fox 4).
- Astros record: 78-79.
- Rangers injuries: DH Joc Pederson (10-day IL, retroactive Sep 19) and RHP Cal Quantrill (60-day IL, season-ending). Pederson had 26 HRs with a .816 OPS in 136 games; Quantrill posted a 2.36 ERA over 15 starts.
These injuries could affect the Rangers’ ability to maintain their lead.
Timeline of Recent Developments
- Sep 5, 2026: Pederson homered against the Rays.
- Sep 13, 2026: Quantrill pitched versus the Diamondbacks.
- Sep 19, 2026: Pederson placed on the 10-day IL (retroactive).
- Sep 20, 2026: Quantrill shifted to the 60-day IL.
- Sep 29, 2026: Wild-Card Series begins.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Two reputable outlets give different win-loss totals for the Rangers (78-79 vs. 78-78) with no explanation, leaving the exact standing ambiguous. The Astros’ record is consistently reported as 78-79, but the impact of their remaining schedule on the division race is not detailed.
What’s Next
The Rangers’ final home series starts Tuesday against the New York Mets, a game that could decide the AL West title. If either the Rangers or Astros finish below .500 yet atop the division, they would become the first full-season division champion with a losing record, a milestone made possible by the modern 12-team playoff structure. The Wild-Card Series is slated for September 29, setting the stage for any sub-.500 club that clinches a postseason berth.