Full Breakdown
U.S. Air Force Moves to Shut Down China Aerospace Studies Institute
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Decision to Close CASI
The United States Air Force announced that the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI), the service’s premier open-source research centre on the People’s Liberation Army’s air, space, cyber and missile capabilities, will be closed. All civilian billets at CASI will become unfunded beginning October 1, and the institute’s staff will be placed in a “surplus” status while the Air Force evaluates reassignment options. The director, Brendan Mulvaney, said the institute will continue to honor existing commitments through at least March 2027, but once civilian employees depart, CASI will cease operations.
Background & Context
CASI was established in 2017 under Air University after originating from a 2014 initiative at the Rand Corporation. Its mission has been to produce primary-source research, translations, and analysis for senior Air Force leaders, other U.S. military services, allied forces, think tanks and academia. Notable outputs include the 2022 “PLA Rocket Force Organisation” dossier, the 2023 “PLA Naval Aviation Reorganisation” study, and the fifth edition of the “PLA Aerospace Power” primer released in May 2023. The institute also runs a fellowship programme that embeds Air Force majors for a year-long course.
Official Statements & Responses
- CASI’s official X account confirmed that Air University has decided to close the institute.
- Mulvaney reiterated that while billets will go unfunded on October 1, the centre will keep working on existing projects and courses through at least March 2027.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- SCMP reporting: States that Air University has decided to close CASI, with all roles becoming unfunded from October 1 and the institute slated to shut down once civilian staff depart.
- Air Force spokesperson: Claims the institute is not closing, asserting that the mission will continue using military personnel and that the organization is being evaluated for alignment with Department of the Air Force priorities.
The discrepancy centers on whether CASI will cease to exist or merely operate with a reduced civilian workforce.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Air University has decided to close the China Aerospace Studies Institute.” — Brendan Mulvaney, the organization’s director
- “That doesn’t mean we are going to cease operations right on the first of October. CASI has commitments that it has made and will honor, to the best of our ability, through at least March of 2027,” — Brendan Mulvaney, the organization’s director
What’s Next
The Air Force will continue to assess CASI’s alignment with Department of the Air Force priorities. Civilian staff remain employed in a surplus status while the service seeks new assignments for them. The institute’s ongoing publications and courses are expected to be fulfilled through at least March 2027, after which the remaining military-only component may be discontinued.