Full Breakdown
Hochul Maintains Lead Over Blakeman in Late-Season New York Governor Polls
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Recent Polls Show Hochul Ahead
- A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,026 likely voters surveyed September 17-20 gave Governor Kathy Hochul 58 % support versus Bruce Blakeman’s 39 % – a 19-point advantage.
- A Siena University poll conducted September 11-17 among 1,144 likely voters reported Hochul at 50 % and Blakeman at 41 %, a 9-point margin.
- Internal surveys released by pro-Blakeman groups later in the month showed tighter races: a “Strong and Safe” Super PAC poll at 50 %-46 % and a Coalition-to-Protect-Nassau-Taxpayers poll at 47 %-43 %.
All three surveys were released in the weeks leading up to the November 3 gubernatorial election.
Background & Context
Governor Hochul was first elected in 2022 by a single-digit margin and is now seeking a second term. Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, is the Republican challenger.
Data & Statistics
- Poll margins: Quinnipiac 19 points (58-39), Siena 9 points (50-41), Super PAC 4 points (50-46), Coalition 6 points (47-41).
- Favorability: Hochul 46 % favorable, 43 % unfavorable; Blakeman 30 % favorable, 36 % unfavorable.
- Issue priority: Cost of living was the top issue for 28 % of likely voters, followed by the economy (21 %). Among voters who named cost of living as most important, 66 % favored Hochul.
- Leadership perception: 48 % said Hochul has good leadership skills versus 34 % for Blakeman; 45 % said Hochul is honest versus 32 % for Blakeman.
Official Statements & Responses
Hochul’s campaign released television ads linking Blakeman to former President Trump, labeling him a “Trump puppet” who would cut health care and raise costs. The ads cite a Siena poll finding that two-to-one voters approved of Hochul’s one-year moratorium on certain regulations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Four years after Kathy Hochul won the governor's race by single digits, she appears positioned, at the moment, to have a wider lane on the road to being reelected,” — Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant
- “We will create jobs, we will create prosperity in this state, we will make people happy again in this state because Kathy Hochul has made people miserable,” — Bruce Blakeman
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The three most-cited polls differ markedly in the size of Hochul’s lead: 19 points (Quinnipiac), 9 points (Siena), and as little as 4-6 points in internal campaign surveys. The internal polls lack publicly disclosed methodologies, leaving a gap in understanding how the tighter margins were derived.
What’s Next
New York voters will cast ballots on November 3 to decide whether Governor Hochul secures a second term or Blakeman unseats her. No additional scheduled events were disclosed in the source material.