Full Breakdown
Cook Political Report Shifts Kansas and South Carolina Senate Races Toward Democrats
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Race Reclassifications
The nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report moved Kansas’s Senate contest from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” and South Carolina’s from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” The changes were announced just over a month before the November midterm elections, reflecting a broader “very blue environment” identified in the forecaster’s latest analysis.
Drivers of Competitiveness
In Kansas, rising fuel and fertilizer costs—key issues for the state’s agriculture-dependent economy—have narrowed the gap between incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. The shift is compounded by President Donald Trump’s recent decision to halt purchases of Bombardier aircraft, a major Wichita employer. Additionally, Marshall’s billing and collection practices as an OB-GYN have become a focal point for Democratic attacks, while Darline Graham (R-SC) faces “soft numbers” and low-turnout concerns among state Republicans.
Probabilities and Recent Polling
Decision Desk HQ projects a 79 % chance that Marshall retains his seat versus a 21 % chance for Hamilton, and a 74 % chance that Graham holds the South Carolina seat versus a 26 % chance for Andrews. A recent Hill/Emerson College poll showed Hamilton leading Marshall by two points, with 45 % support to Marshall’s 43 %.
Official Commentary
Taylor added that the Democratic ad effort in South Carolina, a $2.5 million campaign by Fresh Start South Carolina, could turn the contest “truly competitive.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “It is simply becoming clear that Rep. Mike Collins does not have the time or money — in addition to the type of profile — to make this race truly competitive. As such, it moves from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat,” — Jessica Taylor, cook editor
- “This race is getting the attention it deserves because South Carolinians are tired of paying record-high diesel prices, watching their healthcare get gutted, and getting squeezed by higher interest rates,” — Democrat Annie Andrews, candidate and doctor