Full Breakdown
Reform UK Falls to Third Place in Latest Polls Amid Scandals and Investigations
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Core Event: Polls Show Reform UK Dropping Behind Conservatives
Recent opinion surveys place Labour ahead of both the Conservatives and Reform UK, with the Reform party now in third place. The More in Common poll records Labour at 26 %, the Conservatives at 23 %, and Reform UK at 22 %. A YouGov multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, based on 14,000 respondents sampled between late August and mid-September, projects Reform trailing the Conservatives for most simulated seat outcomes.
Background & Context: From Early-2025 Lead to Recent Scandals
Earlier in 2025 Reform UK briefly led national polling under Nigel Farage’s leadership. An undercover Channel 4 report suggested senior Reform figures discussed disguising foreign donations, prompting a Metropolitan Police investigation. Parliamentary scrutiny also focuses on whether Farage declared a £5 million payment received before the 2024 general election. These challenges have coincided with a steady decline in the party’s vote intention numbers.
Data & Statistics
- Labour vote share: 26 % (More in Common)
- Conservative vote share: 23 % (More in Common)
- Reform UK vote share: 22 % (More in Common)
- Liberal Democrats: 11 % (More in Common)
- Greens: 8 % (More in Common)
- Restore Britain: 6 % (More in Common)
YouGov’s favourability tracker records 69 % of respondents holding an unfavourable view of Farage, the highest level in the ten-year history of the survey, with 57 % describing him as “very unfavourable.”
Official Statements & Responses
- Nigel Barker, leader of the North East Derbyshire district council, acknowledged the recent by-election result, emphasizing respect for the democratic mandate.
- Luke Tryl, representing the More in Common polling consortium, noted Labour’s sustained lead heading into its conference.
Police spokespeople confirm that investigations into alleged foreign-funded donations and the £5 million payment are ongoing, while Reform UK has declined to comment on the specifics.
Criticism & Opposition
Legal analysts and opposition parties have highlighted the investigations as evidence of compliance failures within Reform UK. The Metropolitan Police probe into alleged attempts to solicit illegal foreign donations, including a £1 million payment linked to deputy leader Richard Tice, underscores concerns about the party’s financial transparency. Critics argue that these allegations damage public trust and contribute directly to the party’s polling decline.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The Bloomberg-cited YouGov MRP model does not publish exact national vote-share percentages, focusing instead on seat projections, whereas the Independent-reported More in Common poll provides explicit percentages. This creates a gap in directly comparable national vote-share data across the two surveys. The precise impact of the Restore Britain vote on Reform’s seat-by-seat performance remains unquantified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We acknowledge the election result in Eckington South and Renishaw and respect the democratic mandate given by those who voted.” — Nigel Barker
- “Labour head into their conference with a lead in our polling for the ninth week in a row, although that lead remains narrow,” — Luke Tryl
What’s Next: Election Timing Speculation
Political commentators note that Labour’s sustained polling advantage fuels speculation about an early general election, though the government has publicly denied plans to call one before the statutory deadline of 2029. Analysts suggest that Reform’s continued decline could influence strategic calculations for both the governing party and the opposition ahead of any future electoral contest.