Full Breakdown
Tony Blair Urges UK to Target EU Re-Entry Within a Decade
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Re-joining the EU: A New 10-Year Objective
Sir Tony Blair, through the Tony Blair Institute (TBI), has released *Beyond Leave and Remain: A Path to Rejoining a Reformed Europe*. The paper calls on Prime Minister Andy Burnham to embed a public commitment to re-join the European Union within ten years, making it a cornerstone of the government’s upcoming 10-year plan. It recommends discarding Labour’s “red lines” on free movement, single-market access and customs-union membership, and pursuing staged deals on defence, energy and technology.
Background & Context
The United Kingdom left the EU after the 2016 referendum. Recent polling shows a resurgence of pro-EU sentiment ahead of the next general election. The TBI report argues that a re-joined, “reformed” EU would better serve Britain’s strategic interests.
Data & Statistics
- Electoral impact: A YouGov poll commissioned by Best for Britain found that a pledge to re-join the EU could lift Labour’s projected seat total from 136 to 321 seats.
- Trade loss: The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) estimates the UK loses £6.5 billion in annual exports to the EU because of the lack of a mutual-recognition agreement. Logistics UK puts the broader export loss at £11.7 billion per year.
- Economic boost claim: Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, argues that full EU membership could grow the UK economy by at least £92 billion per year.
Official Statements & Responses
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, speaking on a flight to New York for the UN General Assembly, said the government’s immediate priority is to deepen UK-EU trade ties and to hold a summit with the European Commission later in the year. He reiterated adherence to Labour leader Keir Starmer’s existing red lines but acknowledged pressure from party members to consider a re-join pledge. Burnham also expressed concerns about the EU’s “Made in Europe” legislation and promised to raise those concerns constructively with EU officials.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Export loss figures: IPPR cites £6.5 billion annually, while Logistics UK reports a broader loss of £11.7 billion. The discrepancy stems from differing scopes—IPPR focuses on mutual-recognition gaps, Logistics UK includes all Brexit-related export reductions.
- EU appetite: The TBI report assumes the EU will be receptive to a re-entry plan, but no official EU response has been documented, leaving acceptance uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This objective should be a cornerstone of the UK government’s upcoming 10-year plan.” — Sir Tony
- “Everything points to there being little scope to further deepen UK-EU relations without revisiting the UK Government’s red lines. Only full EU membership can grow the UK economy by at least £92bn per year, and it is supported by a majority of the electorate, particularly Labour’s coalition of voters.” — Naomi Smith
What’s Next
A parliamentary debate on re-joining the EU is scheduled for 12 October. The European Movement UK has organized a letter-writing campaign that has already gathered over 20,000 signatures in support of the debate. The outcome of that session will determine whether the ten-year re-entry objective moves from proposal to policy.