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Denmark Warns of Intensified Russian Hybrid Warfare Targeting the West
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Escalating Threat: Danish Intelligence Predicts More Frequent Hybrid Attacks
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (FE) released a threat assessment on September 24, stating that Russia is likely to increase the scale and frequency of hybrid warfare against Western nations and NATO members in the coming months. It also highlighted a “low, but increasing risk” that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, describing such a move as “a desperate step” that might involve isolated long-range strikes or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones.
Recent Hybrid Incidents Illustrate the Growing Danger
The assessment follows a series of recent events that have heightened European alarm. German authorities attributed an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russian planning, describing it as part of a broader pattern of sabotage. In early September, a Russian frigate fired two flares toward a Danish military helicopter operating in international waters off Gedser, narrowly missing the aircraft—a incident the FE chief called “unprofessional behavior” that appeared unsanctioned by Russian military leadership. These incidents underscore the shift from covert sabotage to more overt, potentially lethal actions on European soil.
Official Statements from Danish Authorities
FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel emphasized that the service can no longer rule out a limited attack on NATO territory, noting that Russia would need at least six months to prepare for a full invasion. Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus described the situation as serious, stressing the importance of openness about the threat. Chief of Defence Michael Hyldgaard affirmed that the Danish armed forces are adapting to the assessment and remain prepared to respond, regardless of the nature of the threat.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The situation is serious, and we take it seriously,” — Jeppe Bruus, defence minister
- “We will fight and win with what we have, and those we fight alongside. That is our task. That is what we are preparing for. We are ready for that – regardless of the threat,” — Michael Hyldgaard, chief of defence
Outlook and Potential Risks
The FE assessment projects that hybrid attacks could target infrastructure supporting Ukraine’s defence, such as railways and defence-industry facilities, aiming to erode public support for Kyiv within NATO states. While a full invasion of a NATO member remains unlikely, the possibility of limited strikes or cyber operations that disrupt vital societal functions is deemed credible. Danish officials indicated that the military is ready to counter such threats, but the assessment calls for heightened vigilance and coordinated NATO responses to deter further escalation.