Full Breakdown
Collins Takes Lead in Latest Maine Senate Poll
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, who entered the race in July after the original nominee withdrew amid sexual-assault allegations. The contest is pivotal: Democrats must flip four Senate seats for a majority. Collins has broken with former President Donald Trump on issues such as Canada tariffs and the Attorney General confirmation, while Jackson runs on “Medicare for All,” ICE abolition and higher taxes on billionaires.
Data & Statistics
- The New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of 619 likely voters, fielded in mid-September, shows Collins at 49 % and Jackson at 46 %, a three-point edge within the poll’s ± 4.9-point margin of error.
- Favorability: 51 % view Collins positively versus 41 % for Jackson.
- Party control: 55 % of respondents prefer Democratic control of the Senate.
- Advertising: Republican-aligned groups have reserved roughly $165 million for ads in Maine, compared with $123 million for Democratic-aligned groups. One ad-tracking report notes $49.1 million of $83.8 million in ad reservations have been placed for Jackson since late July.
- Economic pressure: A focus-group sample cited a 74 % spike in heating-oil costs, shaping voter priorities.
Voter Sentiment On the Ground
Focus groups in the Lewiston-Auburn area revealed split-ticket tendencies. Moderate voters who previously backed Trump or Rep. Jared Golden expressed uncertainty, while independent women who had supported Collins in prior elections noted her constituent service as a key factor. A 29-year-old Republican, John Toomey, stated, “I just trust Susan Collins more.”
Official Statements & Responses
Collins’s office denied any wrongdoing in the FBI-related investigation cited by a ProPublica report, reiterating that the FBI previously concluded the probe found no implicating evidence.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Poll results differ across outlets: the NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey shows Collins ahead, while an August Fox News poll placed Jackson at 48 % to 46 % for Collins, and an early-September CNN poll gave Jackson a 48-45 % edge. Earlier June polling had Collins trailing former nominee Graham Platner by two points. The impact of the ProPublica investigation remains uncertain; some voters expressed concern, while others noted the FBI’s prior clearance. No definitive data are available on how the story will shift voter behavior before Election Day.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This administration is going to leave us with a lot of problems that we have to fix,” — Daigle
- “At the end of the day, I feel Susan Collins really is the best bet for Maine at the moment,” — John Toomey
- “I just trust Susan Collins more.” — Tara Wheeler
- “She has been a leader in the Senate,” — Brian Cashin
- “I’m like, I would literally rather have someone throw a water bottle at my head than vote against abortion rights,” — Molly Hunt, 33, of Biddeford
What’s Next
The Senate race will be decided in the November election, with both campaigns intensifying advertising and voter outreach in the weeks leading up to the ballot.
