Full Breakdown
Democrats Hold Leads in Michigan and New Hampshire but Trail in Maine, New Polls Show
By Drooid · · How we work
Overview of Current Senate Polls
A recent New York Times/Siena University poll of three battleground Senate races finds that Democratic nominees are ahead of their Republican opponents in Michigan and New Hampshire, while the party’s challenger in Maine remains behind incumbent Senator Susan Collins. In Michigan, Democratic nominee Dr. Abdul El-Sayed leads former Representative Mike Rogers by five percentage points. In New Hampshire, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holds a five-point advantage over former Senator John E. Sununu. By contrast, Collins maintains a three-point edge over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Maine.
Background of the Races
The Michigan and New Hampshire contests have featured relatively stable Democratic campaigns after primary battles. In Maine, the Democratic side experienced a sudden shift after the collapse of former candidate Graham Platner’s campaign in the summer, prompting Jackson’s rapid rise as the nominee. Collins, a long-standing Republican incumbent, is viewed as the most vulnerable GOP senator, yet the poll suggests she retains a modest lead.
Poll Numbers and Lead Margins
- Michigan: El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 5 points.
- New Hampshire: Pappas ahead of Sununu by 5 points.
- Maine: Collins ahead of Jackson by 3 points.
All margins are calculated from unrounded vote shares in the respective state samples (Michigan 605 respondents, New Hampshire 613 respondents, Maine 619 respondents). Net favorability scores, which subtract unfavorable from favorable views, also favor the Democratic candidates in Michigan and New Hampshire but show Collins maintaining a lead in Maine.
Implications for Senate Control
Democrats must flip four Republican-held seats to gain a Senate majority while defending all of their own. The leads in Michigan and New Hampshire could ease the path to those flips, but the narrow margin in Maine—once considered the party’s best chance to unseat a GOP incumbent—introduces uncertainty. A loss in Maine would require Democrats to secure additional Republican seats elsewhere to achieve control.
Upcoming Election Timeline
The Senate contests will be decided in the November general election. As the campaign season progresses, both parties will focus resources on the three states, with particular attention to Maine where the race remains within single-digit margins.