Full Breakdown
Super El Niño Puts San Diego’s Coastline at Risk
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Erosion and Flood Threats Along San Diego Shoreline
A “Super El Niño” is forecast to raise California sea levels by six to 13 inches, intensify wave action, and bring heavy rainfall. The convergence of these forces threatens beach erosion, cliff collapses, and coastal flooding across San Diego County. Critical sites identified in the city’s 2025 Coastal Resilience Master Plan—including La Jolla Shores, Tourmaline Surf Park, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach and Sunset Cliffs—are expected to face accelerated shoreline loss and damage to infrastructure such as highways and public parks.
Background: Record-Breaking El Niño
Scientists now classify the current event as the strongest El Niño on record, with central-Pacific sea-surface temperatures projected to peak in December at roughly 7 °F (4 °C) above average.
City Preparedness and Projects
City spokesman Peter Kelly told the *Times of San Diego* that design work for resilience projects at La Jolla Shores and Mission Beach remains at the conceptual stage because of funding shortfalls, while engineering designs for Tourmaline, Ocean Beach and Sunset Cliffs have entered the initial phase. The city is installing sand berms along Mission Bay and other beaches to absorb heavy surf and mitigate damage.
The San Diego City Council adopted its Coastal Resilience Master Plan in September 2025. The state-funded California Coastline Survey has scanned the entire coast six times since 2023 and plans additional surveys in the fall of 2026 and spring of 2027 to quantify erosion linked to the upcoming El Niño.
Expert Assessment
Researcher Adam Young of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, explains that “powerful waves can accelerate erosion of beaches, sea cliffs, and bluffs, and cause coastal flooding; and strong El Niño conditions can raise sea level on the California coast by six to 13 inches.”
Physical-science professor Lisa Chaddock of San Diego City College warns that “any homes on the cliffs are going to be in danger this year.”
Data & Statistics
- Projected sea-level rise from the El Niño: 6–13 inches (Young).
- Oceanside’s beach retreat: up to 6.6 feet annually south of its harbor.
- Post-2015-2016 storm dredging by the U.S. Army Corps: 236,590 cubic yards moved by CJW Construction.
- Ongoing erosion at San Onofre State Beach is stripping sandstone that supports Interstate 5.
Impacts and Risks
Higher tides, larger waves, and intensified rainfall create a “compound threat” that could permanently alter San Diego’s shoreline. Cliff-side homes face imminent danger, and critical infrastructure—including highways, seawalls, and sewage systems—may suffer damage that disrupts transportation and public health.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
City officials acknowledge that funding constraints have stalled progress on several key projects, leaving La Jolla Shores and Mission Beach without detailed designs. No publicly disclosed timeline exists for securing the necessary resources, creating a gap between planning and implementation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Powerful waves can accelerate erosion of beaches, sea cliffs, and bluffs, and cause coastal flooding; and strong El Niño conditions can raise sea level on the California coast by six to 13 inches,” — Adam Young, researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
- “Any homes on the cliffs are going to be in danger this year,” — Lisa Chaddock, a physical science professor at San Diego City College
What’s Next
The California Coastline Survey will conduct follow-up measurements in the fall of 2026 and spring of 2027 to assess erosion rates. Meanwhile, California’s governor has declared a state of emergency to mobilize resources ahead of potential winter storms, and local agencies continue to install sand berms and advance engineering designs where funding permits.