Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens: Talarico Leads Paxton in Multiple Polls
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Core Event – A Narrow Lead in a Historically Republican State
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in recent statewide surveys for the U.S. Senate seat. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reported Talarico at 47 % versus Paxton’s 46 %, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 % and 4 % undecided. The same poll, fielded September 15-19, gave Talarico a 76 % advantage among likely voters under 35, compared with Paxton’s 18 %. An NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo poll (September 8-10) showed Talarico at 46 % and Paxton at 43 %, with 8 % undecided.
Background & Context – Shifts in Demographic Coalitions
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Polling shows Talarico leading Latino voters 57 %–38 % and Black voters 87 %–10 %. Women favor Talarico by 11 points, while Paxton leads men by nine. Among voters 55 or older, Paxton still holds a strong lead (57 %–37 %).
Data & Statistics – Numbers Driving the Contest
- Overall lead: 47 %–46 % (Barbara Jordan Center)
- Under-35 lead: 76 %–18 % (same poll)
- Latino vote: 57 %–38 % (Barbara Jordan Center)
- Black vote: 87 %–10 % (Barbara Jordan Center)
- Gender gap: Women 52 % for Talarico, men 51 % for Paxton (NBC 5)
- Advertising spend: GOP groups $47.2 M; Dem groups $6.4 M (AdImpact)
- Cash on hand: Talarico $21.5 M; Paxton $1.8 M (FEC)
Official Statements & Responses – Campaign Strategies
Talarico’s team announced a $25 M investment in Black voter engagement and increased outreach to Black-focused media. Paxton highlighted a student-mobilization effort launched on August 31, creating 11 “Students for Paxton” chapters at Texas colleges. He said, “I am incredibly proud to have students across our state stepping up to fight for the future of Texas.”
Criticism & Opposition – Intra-Party Tensions and External Concerns
Republican strategist Alex Patton cautioned that Talarico’s surge does not signal a broader shift toward the national Democratic platform: “There is no evidence Texas voters are warming to the national Democratic message.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Poll Variability
An Emerson College poll (September 12-14) gave Talarico a 1-point edge (47 %–46 %). A Siena College/ReconMR poll (Sept. 8-11) reported a larger gap, 49 %–43 %. Margins of error range from ±2.31 points (Barbara Jordan Center) to ±4 points (NBC 5), keeping the race within statistical uncertainty.
Verbatim Quotes – Direct Voices from the Campaign Trail
- “You’re saying one thing, but we’re waiting on the action.” — Juli McShay, political science professor
- “It’s not the people — it’s the seat.” — Ken Paxton, Republican attorney general
- “I oppose trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it endangers safety or fairness.” — James Talarico, Democrat
What’s Next – Election Day Approaches
Texans will vote on November 3. Both campaigns are intensifying targeted advertising and voter-contact operations, focusing on Latinos, Black voters, and Gen Z in the final weeks.