Full Breakdown
Russian Grain Exports Rerouted After Drone Strikes Prompt State of Emergency in Krasnodar
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State of Emergency in Krasnodar Over Drone Attacks
On September 24, Governor Veniamin Kondratyev declared a state of emergency in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, citing “massive attacks” by Ukrainian drones on logistics infrastructure. The attacks forced the suspension of operations at the Black-Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key outlet for Russian grain, oil and oil products. Kondratyev said agricultural producers could not sell most of their harvest, creating an oversupply on the domestic market. The region harvested 11.4 million metric tons of grain and pulses this year, nearly 2 million tons more than in 2025.
Shift of Russian Grain Export Routes
With Black-Sea shipments disrupted, Russian exporters have begun repurposing facilities at Baltic and Arctic ports. Sources report that the fertilizer terminal Ultramar at Ust-Luga (capacity 37 million t) started handling grain in August, receiving rail shipments of about 260,000 t destined for Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The Modul and BSMZ terminals in St. Petersburg have also been adapted, with Modul able to move up to 70,000 t of grain per month in containers.
The Arctic port of Murmansk, Russia’s fourth-largest sea port, is preparing to launch grain exports in October. A rail shipment of 40,000 t from the Stavropol region to Murmansk has been approved by Russian Railways. Analysts estimate the combined grain-handling capacity of the Baltic ports at 2–7 million t, far below the 60 million t handled by southern ports such as Novorossiysk.
Quantitative Impact
Diplomatic Efforts to Safeguard Black-Sea Shipping
Turkey has been active in proposing measures to halt attacks on commercial vessels. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Ukrinform that “Various proposals aimed at ending attacks in the Black Sea have been conveyed to Ukraine and Russia.” “Various proposals aimed at ending attacks in the Black Sea have been conveyed to Ukraine and Russia,” — Hakan Fidan, foreign minister
President Tayyip Erdogan told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that attacks on commercial vessels are “inexplicable” and urged both sides to act responsibly, offering Turkey’s assistance to revive direct negotiations.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed diplomatic exchanges following a proposal raised by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during talks with President Vladimir Putin in Bishkek. Peskov blamed Ukraine for the disruptions and said Russia is arranging alternative export routes under Putin’s instructions.
The Ukrainian Sea Ports Administration (USPA) condemned a separate Russian strike on a civilian cargo ship flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda on September 23, which killed the Ukrainian captain and prompted a naval evacuation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Various proposals aimed at ending attacks in the Black Sea have been conveyed to Ukraine and Russia,” — Hakan Fidan, foreign minister
Outlook
Russia continues to adapt its export infrastructure while diplomatic channels remain open. Turkey’s proposals and ongoing Kremlin-Turkey talks suggest further attempts to secure alternative shipping corridors, but the effectiveness of these measures will depend on the willingness of the warring parties to limit attacks on commercial vessels.