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Democrats Hold Edge in New Hampshire Senate Race, Poll Shows
By Drooid · · How we work
Recent Poll Highlights Lead for Chris Pappas
A new poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena University finds Democrat Chris Pappas ahead of Republican nominee John Sununu by five percentage points—50 % to 45 %. Favorability ratings are nearly identical: 43 % of respondents view Pappas favorably versus 44 % for Sununu, while 46 % see Sununu unfavorably compared with 45 % for Pappas.
Voter Attitudes Toward Party Alignment and Trump
The same poll shows 54 % of voters would prefer a Senate candidate who would provide a check on former President Donald Trump, while only 24 % favor a candidate who supports him. When asked about overall Senate control, 53 % of New Hampshire voters prefer Democratic control versus 44 % who prefer Republican control, a nine-point gap. Notably, 8 % of those who want Democratic Senate control say they intend to vote for Sununu in November.
Context of the Race
Pappas is the incumbent Democratic representative, and Sununu is a former U.S. senator seeking a comeback. The poll suggests Democrats retain an advantage in a state where Republicans have shown occasional competitiveness, even in a broader environment that has been favorable to Democrats nationally.
Implications for Senate Balance
New Hampshire’s electorate appears to favor Democratic Senate control, yet the race remains tighter than the overall partisan preference would suggest. If the poll’s margins hold, Pappas’s lead could contribute to maintaining or expanding the Democratic majority in the Senate, though the relatively narrow gap indicates the seat could still be contested in the final election.
Limitations and Uncertainties
The poll reflects likely-voter responses at the time of surveying and does not include a specific day-level date. As with any single poll, margins of error and methodological factors could affect the precise numbers. The race is ongoing, and voter preferences may shift before Election Day.