Full Breakdown
Jets’ Fourth-Down Call vs. Packers Draws Coach’s Defense
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The Decisive Fourth-Down Play
In Week 2, the New York Jets fell 20-17 to the Green Bay Packers after blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. With 1:20 left and facing fourth-and-1 at midfield, quarterback Geno Smith lined up in shotgun beside running back Braelon Allen. The Packers stopped the handoff for no gain, resulting in a turnover on downs that set up the overtime victory for Green Bay.
Reich’s Explanation and Analytics
Offensive coordinator Frank Reich addressed the play on Thursday, September 24, meeting with reporters for the first time since the game. Reich expressed confidence in the decision, noting that the Jets’ analytics department had guided the choice.
Data Supporting the Choice
Reich cited internal studies covering a five-year span that excluded quarterback sneaks. Those analyses showed a 71 % conversion rate for shotgun (gun) runs on fourth-and-1, compared with 67 % for runs under center. By contrast, fourth-and-1 pass attempts converted at 57 %. Reich argued the higher success of gun runs stems from the “threat of a pass,” which prevents the defense from tightening up near the line of scrimmage.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The bottom line is I’m always going to call what I think is the best play in that moment,” — Frank Reich
- “So the gun runs, actually better.” — Frank Reich
- “The analytics would say a gun run — a gun direct run — is the best percentage call in that play," Reich said.” — Frank Reich