Full Breakdown
End of U.S. Hegemony in the Middle East? A Deep Dive
By Drooid · · How we work
Shifting U.S. Military Posture
U.S. forces are scheduled to leave Iraq quietly at the end of this month, and the United States declined to join Saudi Arabia in striking the Houthis in Yemen. Instead, Washington negotiated a deal with the insurgent militia to protect American vessels. The withdrawal reflects a broader retrenchment as American bases in the region remain vulnerable to drones and missiles.
Recent Regional Realignments
In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran signed the Beijing Agreement, signaling a willingness to act without exclusive U.S. security guarantees. Saudi officials have said any peace agreement with Israel would require a U.S.–Saudi mutual-defense pact and U.S. assistance for a civilian Saudi nuclear program.
On August 7, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, presenting a new security architecture intended to operate independently of U.S. guarantees.
Three Ruptures Undermining the American Order
1. Moral rupture – The Gaza war, seen as a joint U.S.–Israeli operation, has led many in the region to view the American security framework as dependent on “Israeli scaffolding,” with Palestinian wellbeing treated as secondary.
2. Strategic rupture – Saudi-Iran détente and repeated Iranian attacks on Gulf facilities have deepened Saudi doubts about U.S. capacity to protect its allies, prompting a shift toward self-reliance.
3. Institutional rupture – Regional actors increasingly reject frameworks imposed by the United States and Israel, exemplified by the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which seeks to replace the Israel-centered security model that underpinned the post-Cold-War order.
Official Positions
- The U.S. decision not to join the Saudi strike on the Houthis reflects a move toward reduced direct military engagement.
- Israeli defense minister Israel Katz stated that Israel is ready to expel the Palestinian population from Gaza by any means.
- Saudi foreign-policy officials have made clear that a U.S.–Saudi mutual-defense pact remains a prerequisite for any Saudi-Israel peace arrangement.
Impact on Regional Security Architecture
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement aims to balance power among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, creating a mechanism that generates stability without relying on an Israel-centric framework. Iran’s continued attacks on Gulf infrastructure have reinforced Saudi skepticism about U.S. protection guarantees. Collectively, these developments point toward a more multipolar Middle East in which local powers assume primary security responsibilities.
Key Data Points
- August 7: Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan.
- October 7: Israeli defense minister Israel Katz reiterated readiness to expel Palestinians from Gaza.
What’s Next
The sources do not specify further scheduled actions beyond the August 7 agreement and the October 7 statement. No additional future events were detailed.