Full Breakdown
YouGov Model Shows Reform UK Defectors at Risk in Hypothetical Election
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Hypothetical Election Results from YouGov Modeling
A YouGov multilevel regression and post-stratification (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP)) model, based on a survey of 17,000 adults conducted between 23 August and 18 September, projects that if a general election were held tomorrow, Labour would emerge as the largest party in a hung Parliament. The model predicts Labour 241 seats, the Conservatives 130, and Reform UK 123, leaving the two parties almost neck-and-neck.
Context: Burnham’s Premiership and the “Burnham Bounce”
The poll is the first large-scale election modelling since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. Analysts note a “Burnham bounce” that has lifted Labour’s standing and narrowed the gap with the governing Conservatives.
Seat Projections for Reform UK and Key Defectors
According to the YouGov model, Reform UK’s high-profile Tory defectors would lose their seats:
- Robert Jenrick’s Newark constituency is projected at 37 % Conservative vote.
- Danny Kruger’s East Wiltshire seat is projected at 34 % Conservative vote.
- Suella Braverman’s Fareham and Waterlooville seat is forecast to remain Conservative with 32 % of the vote, compared with 25 % for Reform.
Conversely, Reform leader Nigel Farage is expected to retain Clacton with a 47 % majority, and party deputy leader Richard Tice and chairman Lee Anderson are also forecast to hold their seats. Andrew Rosindell is projected to keep Romford, and Sarah Pochin’s Runcorn and Helsby seat—won by six votes in a 2025 by-election—is projected to return with a 37 % majority.
Wider Party Projections and Coalition Scenarios
The model places the Liberal Democrats at 71 seats (one fewer than in 2024) and the Greens at nine seats after a gain of five. The Scottish National Party is projected at 40 seats and Plaid Cymru at 15. To form a majority, Burnham would need to work with Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey and either the SNP or Plaid Cymru. Davey has ruled out a coalition with Reform and declined to comment on hypothetical deals with Labour.
Survey Methodology and Timeline
YouGov’s MRP approach combines the 17,000-person survey with census data and other sources to generate constituency-level forecasts. The poll also notes an upcoming by-election on 8 October in Holborn and St Pancras, where Labour is projected at 44 % of the vote versus 20 % for the Greens.