Full Breakdown
Prediction Markets Branch Out: Climate Bets, Gaming Conferences, and Ongoing Debate
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
Online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are rapidly expanding beyond traditional sports and financial contracts to include wagers on climate outcomes and to attract attention from the broader gaming industry. The shift has sparked both commercial interest and ethical criticism.
Background and Growth
Kalshi reported a 500 % increase in weather- and climate-related wagers over the past year, lifting the platform’s total market size to roughly $1.1 billion. The company has partnered with The Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, to bolster credibility for these new contracts. At the same time, gaming-focused firms are exploring prediction markets as a complementary vertical, exemplified by Media Troopers’ planned attendance at major industry events.
Data and Statistics
- 500 % growth in climate-related wagers on Kalshi (Kalshi spokesperson).
- $1.1 billion total market valuation for Kalshi’s platform (Kalshi spokesperson).
- Prediction markets generated billions of dollars in trading volume during the first NFL weekend, according to Georgia Tech professor Sudheer Chava.
Official Statements & Responses
Kalshi describes its role as providing “well-calibrated forecasting data,” using market wisdom to predict temperature spikes, flood severity, and other environmental events. Media Troopers CEO Shmulik Segal said the firm’s strategy is to expand the use of its technology, data, and acquisition expertise into prediction markets while keeping gaming as its foundation.
Industry Moves into New Verticals
Media Troopers plans to attend two key conferences this fall: G2E in Las Vegas from September 28 through October 1, and PREDICT in New York on October 6. The dual attendance is intended to explore opportunities at the intersection of regulated gaming and emerging prediction-market services.
What's Next
Kalshi’s partnership with The Weather Company suggests further integration of meteorological data into market contracts. Meanwhile, the upcoming G2E and PREDICT events will likely showcase additional collaborations between traditional gaming operators and prediction-market platforms.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I find it depressing because it’s distracting us from what we should be focusing on,” — Kaitlyn Trudeau, a scientist at the non-profit Climate Central
- “G2E and PREDICT represent two different but complementary parts of where we see the market heading,” — Shmulik Segal, CEO of Media Troopers
- “Our strategy is ultimately about expanding the markets in which we can use our technology, data and acquisition expertise. Gaming remains our foundation, while prediction markets are one of the areas we believe are important to understand as we plan the next stage of Media Troopers’ growth.” — Media Troopers. Segal, CEO of Media Troopers