Full Breakdown
Denmark Warns of Escalating Russian Hybrid Threat to NATO
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Threat Assessment
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS)) released a new threat assessment indicating a “low but growing” risk that Russia could carry out a limited military attack on one or more NATO members that share a border with Russia. The assessment says Russia may intensify hybrid warfare—more frequent cyber operations, sabotage, isolated drone or missile strikes on infrastructure that supports Ukraine, and false-flag attacks using Ukrainian-made drones. It also notes the possibility of deploying a small number of troops without national insignia into a NATO border area. While the overall likelihood of a full-scale invasion remains “low” and “highly unlikely,” the service cautions that such an attack “cannot be ruled out.”
Official Statements & Responses
Intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel explained that the aim of any limited strike would be to “divide NATO” rather than to seize territory. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen condemned a recent incident in which a Russian frigate fired flares toward a Danish helicopter, calling it part of an “increasingly aggressive Russian behavior.” Estonia’s Defense Ministry echoed Denmark’s view, saying it is “closely monitoring developments” and is prepared to act decisively if needed. The Russian embassy in Denmark declined to comment.
Background & Context
The warning comes amid heightened tensions linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Recent European incidents include a suspected Russian-linked drone attack on Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport and the flare-firing episode in the Baltic Sea. DDIS argues that Russia’s willingness to take risks has risen as it faces battlefield losses, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and economic strain.
Data & Statistics
- The assessment rates the risk of a limited NATO attack as “low but growing.”
- DDIS estimates Russia would need at least six months to prepare forces for an invasion.
- A February 2025 assessment projected that Russia could fight a local war within six months, a regional Baltic conflict within two years, and a large-scale European war within five years.
Verbatim Quote
“The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide Nato,” — Thomas Ahrenkiel, intelligence service chief