Full Breakdown
Hamas Warning Transmitted Through a Secret Back-Channel Before the October 7 Attack
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Sinwar’s “Earthquake” Message Delivered to Israel
On September 14, 2023, Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar met former Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida in Gaza. Zaida transmitted the note in Hebrew and Arabic. Less than thirty minutes later, Israeli officials called to verify the wording. “Do you know that nobody in Israel — meaning in the security establishment — slept last night?” — Abu Zaida, senior Fatah official
Background & Context: A Secret Hamas-Israel Negotiation Channel
The back-channel opened in March 2022 after senior Hamas political bureau member Ghazi Hamad asked Zaida to revive stalled prisoner-exchange talks. Zaida confirmed Hamas’s authorization from Sinwar’s nom de guerre “Abu Ibrahim,” then contacted a former senior Israeli security official and later met Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar. Discussions moved from broad principles to detailed prisoner lists, including women, minors, and sick inmates. Israel offered expanded labor permits and reconstruction projects. The channel ran intermittently until September 2023, when the “earthquake” warning marked its final use.
Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| March 2022 | Channel inaugurated after Ghazi Hamad’s request. |
| July 2022 | Meeting in Gaza with Sinwar, Hamad, and Rawhi Mushtaha; Hamas outlines “humanitarian deal” demands (Ynet). |
| September 14 2023 | Sinwar delivers “earthquake” warning to Zaida (Jpost, Ynet). |
| September 24 2026 | Zaida appears in an Al-Ghad documentary recounting the warning. |
| October 5 (scheduled) | Zaida returns to Gaza; a meeting with Sinwar is scheduled for October 8. |
| October 7 (scheduled) | Hamas-led assault on southern Israel. |
Data & Statistics
- Prisoner-exchange demands: release of women, minors, rearrested Gilad Shalit prisoners, veteran and sick inmates (Ynet).
- Reported casualties from the October 7 assault: 1,200 civilians killed and 251 hostages taken.
Official Statements & Responses
- Israeli security officials verified Sinwar’s message within half an hour and convened an urgent meeting in Ashkelon, noting the message kept the security establishment awake through the night (Ynet).
- UAE intelligence warned Shin Bet in September 2023 that Hamas might act by month’s end; the warning was relayed to President Mohammed bin Zayed, who called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure the alert reached him.
- Netanyahu’s office later denied any phone call with the UAE president and called the claim “a total lie”.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics of Netanyahu, including victims’ families, cite the pre-attack warnings as evidence of policy failures that allowed the October 7 assault to happen.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Start of the back-channel: Jpost places its opening in March 2022 after Hamad’s approach, while Times of Israel suggests the talks began during the previous Bennett-Lapid government.
- Interpretation of “earthquake”: Both Zaida and Israeli officials acknowledge the phrase’s meaning remains unclear, and no consensus exists on what “cards” referred to.
- UAE-Netanyahu phone call: The UAE source claims a call occurred; Netanyahu’s office denies it, leaving the factual status unsettled.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Do you know that nobody in Israel — meaning in the security establishment — slept last night?” — Sufian Abu Zaida, senior Fatah official (Ynet)
