Full Breakdown
Opposition Bloc Projects Lead Over Netanyahu’s Coalition in Latest Polls
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Poll Findings
Recent September 2026 opinion surveys show the opposition bloc ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition. A Channel 12 poll cited by *Anadolu Agency* reported the opposition at 52 seats versus the coalition’s 51, with the Arab parties holding 13 seats and a four-seat Hendel-Zelekha alliance (aa, 23 Sept 2026). The same poll gave Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party 22 seats, Likud 18, and Naftali Bennett’s Together and Yair Golan’s Democrats each 11 (aa, 23 Sept 2026).
A Maariv poll published by *The Jerusalem Post* projected the opposition bloc at 55 seats compared with the coalition’s 49, with Yashar at 23 seats, Likud at 20, and Otzma Yehudit at 9 (jpost, intro).
An i24NEWS poll reported the opposition at 47 seats and the coalition at 60, with Otzma Yehudit 8 seats and Likud 27 (israelnationalnews, intro).
Polymarket priced Yashar’s chance of winning the most seats at ?62 % versus ?39 % for Likud, and Eisenkot’s chance of becoming prime minister at ?52 % versus ?29 % for Netanyahu (jpost, intro).
Background & Context
Israel’s next general election is slated for October 2026; a governing majority requires at least 61 of the 120 Knesset seats. Since December 2022, Netanyahu’s coalition has included United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism and the Reservists-New Economic Party. Major Jewish parties have publicly ruled out relying on Arab lawmakers to secure a majority (aa, intro).
Data & Statistics
- Seat projections: Opposition bloc ranges from 47 to 55 seats; coalition ranges from 49 to 60 seats across polls.
- Prime-minister preference: Eisenkot leads with 48 % (aa, 23 Sept 2026) and 41 % (Channel 13, aa, intro) versus Netanyahu’s 36 % and 38 %, respectively.
- Market odds: Polymarket assigns Yashar a ?62 % probability of winning the most seats and Eisenkot a ?52 % chance of becoming prime minister (jpost, intro).
- Other parties: Otzma Yehudit projected at 6–9 seats; United Torah Judaism and Shas each at 7–8 seats; the Joint List and Ra’am together at 12–13 seats.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The three polls differ markedly in bloc sizes. The Channel 12 survey shows a near tie (52 vs 51), the Maariv poll gives the opposition a six-seat advantage (55 vs 49), while the i24NEWS poll places the coalition ahead by 13 seats (60 vs 47). Methodology details (sample size, weighting) vary, and none address how post-election coalition talks might shift the final distribution.
Official Statements & Responses
Netanyahu has headed the government since December 2022 and denies corruption investigations; the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in November 2024 over alleged war crimes in Gaza (aa, intro). No new statements from Netanyahu or opposition leaders regarding the latest poll results were included in the source material.
What’s Next
A Likud rally is scheduled for September 17, 2026 in Tel Aviv (jpost, scheduled). The election is expected in October 2026. Voter preferences for government composition remain split: 31 % favor a broad unity government, 29 % an exclusively right-wing cabinet, and 25 % a government formed by opposition parties (aa, intro).
These polling snapshots illustrate a volatile electoral environment in which the opposition bloc appears poised to challenge Netanyahu’s coalition for control of the Knesset, while public sentiment on leadership and coalition composition remains divided.
