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Early Election Gambles in Canada: Risks and Rewards
By Drooid · · How we work
Recent Call by British Columbia
Premier David Eby announced that British Columbia will hold a provincial election in October, two years ahead of the fixed date. He framed the decision as a response to what he described as an “existential” threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, arguing that voters need a say in the province’s direction. Opposition leaders pushed back: interim Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson called the move “cheap, opportunistic,” while Green Party leader Emily Lowan said it would add “yet more instability” to the province.
Historical Precedents and Outcomes
Canadian premiers and prime ministers have repeatedly used early elections to try to convert minority support into a majority.
- In 2020, John Horgan turned a minority government into a majority after a snap vote, echoing Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick the same year.
- Former Quebec premier Jean Charest called an election in 2012 during the student-tuition protests; his Liberals lost to Pauline Marois’ Parti Québécois, which later fell short of a majority.
- Jean Chrétien called a federal election in 2000 when polls showed a strong lead in Ontario; the Liberals captured 100 of 103 Ontario seats and expanded their majority.
- The 1990 Ontario election saw David Peterson’s Liberals lose ground after an early vote, with the NDP’s Bob Rae forming the province’s first New Democratic government.
- Jim Prentice of Alberta called a 2015 election seeking a fresh mandate; the opposition Wildrose Party rebounded and the PCs fell to third place.
- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a 2021 federal election that produced a result almost identical to the 2019 Parliament, while Stephen Harper’s 2008 early election yielded a stronger minority but not a majority.
Data on Electoral Shifts
Criticism and Opposition
Conservative interim leader Lorne Doerkson labeled Eby’s early election as a “cheap, opportunistic political move.” Green leader Emily Lowan warned that the decision would create additional instability in the province.
Implications and Assessment
The CBC analysis notes that early elections can deliver decisive victories when governing parties enjoy strong polling, as seen with Horgan, Higgs, and Chrétien. However, historical cases such as Peterson, Prentice, and Marois illustrate that voters may punish perceived opportunism, leading to unexpected defeats. The mixed record suggests that while an early vote can be a strategic tool, it carries significant electoral risk, and outcomes depend heavily on current public sentiment and the political context surrounding each call.