Full Breakdown
Hurricane Nolo Threatens Hawaii with Potential Major Hurricane Impacts
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Core Event: Nolo Strengthens and Approaches the Big Island
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, named Nolo, has intensified into a Category 1 hurricane and is moving north-northeast at about 5 mph toward the Big Island. The storm is centered roughly 240 mi south of South Point and 430 mi south-southeast of Honolulu. Models project a westward turn on Saturday, bringing the system within a few dozen miles of the island’s southeast coast. Meteorologists expect Nolo to reach at least Category 3 strength by the weekend, with hurricane-force winds possible on the windward and southeast slopes.
Background & Context: Recent Storm Season and El Niño
The 2026 Pacific hurricane season has already produced four tropical systems that have brushed Hawaii: Hurricane Lala, Tropical Storm Moke, Hurricane Lowell, and now Nolo. The active season is linked to a strong El Niño pattern, which has warmed central Pacific sea-surface temperatures and reduced wind shear, conditions that favor rapid intensification.
Data & Statistics: Forecasted Winds, Rainfall, and Surge
- Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph (NHC) to 80 mph (other reports).
- Wind field: Hurricane-force winds extend up to 40 mi from the center; tropical-storm-force winds reach 90–105 mi.
- Rainfall totals: Up to 35 in on the windward and southeast slopes, 15–20 in across most of the island, and 5–10 in on Maui, with localized maxima of 20 in.
- Storm surge: Expected 1–3 ft above ground along vulnerable coastal areas of the Big Island.
- Additional hazards: Large swells, dangerous rip currents, and the possibility of tornadoes or waterspouts.
Official Statements & Responses
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for Hawaii County and a tropical-storm warning for the same area. County Mayor Kimo Alameda urged residents in flood-prone zones to evacuate early, stating “the time to prepare is now, not wait until the rains come.” Governor Josh Green activated more than 230 Hawaii National Guard members and directed state agencies to assist with shelter operations and power restoration. Hawaiian Electric announced that crews who repaired power after Hurricane Lowell would be redeployed to reinforce the grid ahead of Nolo’s arrival.
On-the-Ground Reports: Community Preparations
County officials opened five additional shelters, including gyms and community centers in Hilo, Pahala, and Waimea. The American Red Cross set up an emergency shelter at Na‘alehu Elementary School, and free shuttle buses were provided for residents in low-lying neighborhoods.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Wind speed estimates differ: the NHC lists maximum sustained winds at 70 mph, while some outlets report 80 mph. Rainfall forecasts agree on a potential of up to 35 in, but the timing of the heaviest rains varies among model runs.
Verbatim Quotes
- “That by itself could cause catastrophic flooding, but when you put that on top of grounds that we’ve been raining off and on for the last couple of months … that rain could cause even more damage,” — John Bravender
- “You need to take action now,” — John Bravender
- “This storm is going to be impactful with winds, rain and surf regardless of how close it gets,” — Matt Foster
- “In my 20 years of experience here, I’ve never seen three hurricane watches for the islands in the same year,” — John Bravender
- “There are some, you know, PTSD if you will. We got hit pretty hard, especially on the south side in Ka‘u, and so there is some anxiety,” — Kimo Alameda, Hawaii County mayor