Full Breakdown
Moldova Leads EU Enlargement Momentum in 2026
By Drooid · · How we work
Record Pace of Enlargement Talks
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos notes that the nine months of 2026 have seen more accession chapters opened and closed than in any other year of the past 25 years. After Croatia’s accession in 2013, the Union has not admitted a new member, and the next wave is not expected before 2028. Nonetheless, 2026 is being framed as “the year of enlargement” because of the accelerated progress of several candidate countries.
Front-Runners and Performance Rankings
Kos identifies Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine as the four leading applicants. Montenegro is described as the “frontrunner,” with a 91 percent implementation rate of required reforms and the prospect of concluding technical negotiations by the end of the year, paving the way for membership in 2028. Albania is also noted as “well on the way.” By contrast, Bosnia and Herzegovina registers a zero-percent implementation rate because its politicians have been unable to ratify two key agreements needed for EU funding.
Funding Allocation Tied to Reform Progress
Kos explains that €330 million in EU funding could be reallocated away from the weakest performers.
Extending the Reach: Armenia and the Western Balkans
Although Armenia has not formally applied for membership, the EU is assisting the country by helping redirect its exports to the Union and advancing visa-liberalisation, which would allow Armenians to travel to the EU without a visa. Kos expresses admiration for Armenia’s legislative alignment efforts following its recent parliamentary elections. In the Western Balkans, Kos cancelled a planned mission to Serbia, citing the “glorification of a war criminal” at a funeral and the denial of the Srebrenica genocide as unacceptable. She stresses that all EU candidates, especially those from the Balkans, must pursue reconciliation.
Outlook and Challenges
The momentum of 2026 sets a high bar for the next accession round, with Montenegro likely to join in 2028 if reforms stay on track. Continued progress by Moldova and Albania will be crucial, while Bosnia’s zero-percent implementation and Serbia’s political controversies could jeopardise their prospects and affect the distribution of EU funding. The Union’s emphasis on conditional assistance signals that future enlargement will depend heavily on demonstrable reform delivery.