Full Breakdown
Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party Gains Momentum Amid Security and Coalition Challenges Ahead of 2026 Israeli Elections
By Drooid · · How we work
Security Protection Granted to Opposition Candidate Gadi Eisenkot
Following a *Maariv* report, Israel’s Shin Bet Unit 730 will protect Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition candidate for prime minister. Justice Minister Yariv Levin transferred authority to Shin Bet after a committee meeting attended only by Levin. Shin Bet Director David Zini had earlier declined protection due to a lack of concrete intelligence, but police had classified Eisenkot’s risk at level 4 of 6—the same as Democrats chairman Yair Golan—prompting the advisory committee’s recommendation.
Yashar Party’s Surge in Polls and Prediction Markets
A Maariv poll showed the opposition bloc’s seat count at 55, with Yashar holding 22 seats. In a head-to-head suitability question, Eisenkot led Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by eight points (47% to 39%).
Prediction-market platform Polymarket priced Yashar’s chance of winning the most Knesset seats at roughly 62%, versus 39% for Likud, reversing a month-earlier spread. Trading volume has exceeded $300,000. A separate contract places Eisenkot at about 52-53% for becoming prime minister versus roughly 29% for Netanyahu. Outcomes will be resolved based on the party that secures the most seats.
Internal Coalition Pressures Over Ra’am Participation
Within the Zionist opposition bloc, Yashar faces pressure to exclude the Islamist Ra’am party from any governing coalition. An Haaretz report notes that members of Yashar have urged Eisenkot to rule out Ra’am after recent poll declines. Parties such as B’Yachad, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, have already disqualified Ra’am, while Yashar and the Democrats have not. Eisenkot says Ra’am’s conditions have not been met and warns that disqualifying the party now would limit Yashar’s coalition options and alienate voters. He also indicated openness to alliances with far-right parties.
Official Statements & Responses
- Justice Minister Yariv Levin: Transferred decision-making authority to Shin Bet.
- Shin Bet Director David Zini: Initially rejected protection, later authorized it after the advisory committee’s recommendation.
- Yashar Party Leadership: Stated Ra’am’s inclusion depends on meeting specific conditions; premature disqualification would limit governing prospects.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Police place Eisenkot’s threat level at 4 of 6, matching Yair Golan, while Shin Bet initially reported no specific warning justifying armed protection. The discrepancy remains unresolved.
What’s Next
- September 17 2026 (scheduled): Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a Likud campaign event in Tel Aviv.
- October 13 2025 (scheduled): Shin Bet Director David Zini was photographed with IDF chief Eyal Zamir during a Knesset plenum honoring U.S. President Donald Trump.
These events will unfold as the election campaign intensifies, with Yashar’s polling lead, security considerations, and coalition negotiations shaping the political landscape.
