Story perspectives

Trump approval hits 39%, Democrats lead by 7.6 points

By Drooid · Sep 25, 2026, 11:44 PM UTC · How we work

Summary

Democrats Lead Polls

Democrats lead generic congressional ballot 52%-43%, a 9-point gap (NBC average).
Independents give Democrats a 16-point congressional advantage (NBC average).
President Donald Trump’s national approval sits at 39%, a record low.
Democrats lead Michigan, Texas, and Iowa Senate races by 1-8 points.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats ahead 7.6 points, 49.6%-42%, as of Sept. 25.

Summary

Jackson Replaces Platner

Susan Collins, Senate appropriations chair, is expected to channel federal resources to Maine if re-elected.
Early voting in Maine starts Oct. 5, giving voters two weeks before the Nov. 5 election.
Collins’ 2020 campaign faced a federal corruption probe that could affect moderate voters.
Troy Jackson, former Maine Senate president, replaced Graham Platner after Platner withdrew over a rape allegation.

History

Historical Context

The 1994 midterm gave Republicans a 54-seat swing, winning 230 House seats—the first majority since 1952—thanks to Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America and voter backlash against President Bill Clinton’s health-care plan. That Republican Revolution reshaped Southern representation and secured GOP control for 12 years, a legacy that now underlies today’s Democratic generic-ballot lead and pressure on moderates like Senator Susan Collins.

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Democrats Lead Polls

Democrats lead generic congressional ballot 52%-43%, a 9-point gap (NBC average).
Independents give Democrats a 16-point congressional advantage (NBC average).
President Donald Trump’s national approval sits at 39%, a record low.
Democrats lead Michigan, Texas, and Iowa Senate races by 1-8 points.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin shows Democrats ahead 7.6 points, 49.6%-42%, as of Sept. 25.

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