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Georgia Governor and Senate Races: Polls Indicate Tight Republican Lead in Governor Contest, Strong Democratic Edge in Senate
By Drooid · · How we work
Governor Race Polls Show Narrow Republican Edge
Two recent surveys give Republican Rick Jackson a modest lead over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. The Big Data Poll, which surveyed 712 registered voters and 678 likely voters between September 21 and 23, recorded Jackson at 47.6 percent versus Bottoms 45.7 percent among registered voters, and 48.7 percent versus 46.7 percent among likely voters. After accounting for undecided respondents—62.4 percent of whom leaned toward Bottoms and 37.6 percent toward Jackson—the adjusted support narrows to 50.5 percent for Jackson and 49.5 percent for Bottoms. The poll reports a margin of error of ±4 percentage points for both groups.
The YouGov survey, conducted between September 15 and 18 with 3,447 registered respondents, shows Jackson at 45 percent and Bottoms at 44 percent, with a disclosed margin of error of ±2.7 points for registered voters and ±2.9 points for the stricter likely-voter subset. Earlier polls had Bottoms ahead (Quantus Insights: 46.4 percent to 44.9 percent; Fox News: 52 percent to 47 percent), but the latest data suggest a possible shift toward the Republican candidate.
Senate Race Leads Remain Strong for Democrat
In the concurrent Senate contest, Democrat Jon Ossoff holds a double-digit advantage. The Big Data Poll finds 52.2 percent of likely voters supporting Ossoff versus 41 percent for Republican Mike Collins; the YouGov poll reports 51 percent for Ossoff and 41 percent for Collins. When YouGov applies its stricter likely-voter criteria, Ossoff’s lead narrows slightly to eight points. Cross-party support appears notable: 14.3 percent of respondents who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 back Ossoff, compared with only 2.9 percent of former Vice-President Kamala Harris voters who favor Collins.
Context: Open Governor Seat and Georgia’s Battleground Status
The governor’s race is open because Republican Brian Kemp is term-limited under Georgia’s constitution after two consecutive terms (2018, 2022). Georgia has voted Republican for president in 2024 but chose Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, making the state increasingly competitive. A Bottoms victory would mark the first election of a Black woman as governor of any U.S. state.
Outlook and Potential Impact
If Jackson secures the governorship, Republicans would retain a 20-year hold on the office. Conversely, a Bottoms win could reshape the state’s political landscape and provide a historic milestone. Ossoff’s sizable Senate lead may bolster his profile as a potential 2028 presidential contender, especially if he can carry a state that voted for Trump in 2024. Both races will likely influence national strategies heading into the 2028 election cycle.
