Full Breakdown
Flavio Bolsonaro Gains Poll Ground Amid Scandal as Brazil’s Presidential Race Tightens
By Drooid · · How we work
Recent Polls Show Flavio Bolsonaro Closing on Lula
Two Quaest polls released within days of each other indicate that Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the main challenger to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has narrowed the gap in several key states. In a survey published Monday, the pollster projected Bolsonaro would obtain 42 % of voter support in a hypothetical runoff on Oct. 25, compared with 41 % for Lula— a margin that falls within the poll’s error range. An earlier poll released Wednesday showed similar trends, with Bolsonaro’s first-round support rising to 37 % in Rio de Janeiro and 34 % in São Paulo, while Lula’s figures slipped or edged only slightly upward in those states.
Election Context and Candidate Profiles
Brazil’s presidential election will hold its first round in early October, with a runoff scheduled for Oct. 25 if no candidate exceeds 50 % of valid votes. Lula, 80, seeks a fourth non-consecutive term after serving from 2003-2010 and returning to office in 2023. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running. Bolsonaro launched his campaign in July with his father’s backing.
Poll Numbers and Shifts Across Battlegrounds
- Minas Gerais: Lula rose to 35 % (up from 31 %); Bolsonaro at 30 % (up from 27 %).
- São Paulo: Lula edged to 31 % (up 1 point); Bolsonaro at 34 % (up 3 points).
- Rio de Janeiro: Bolsonaro increased to 37 % (up 3 points); Lula fell to 30 % (down 2 points).
In a potential second round, the polls show Bolsonaro leading in Rio (44 % vs 36 %) and tied nationally at 40 % each.
Scandal Investigation and Political Impact
Bolsonaro is under investigation for suspected corruption and money-laundering linked to financing a biopic of his father. The film’s funding involved Daniel Vorcaro, a jailed banker accused of orchestrating a major financial fraud case. A police report connected Vorcaro’s communications to Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, intensifying scrutiny of Bolsonaro’s campaign. Despite these allegations, the polling data suggest the scandal has not halted his momentum.
Outlook Ahead of the Vote
With less than two weeks before the first-round ballot, the race is described as “knife-edge.” The narrow margins in the latest polls place the runoff outcome on a tight statistical edge, and the scheduled Oct. 25 second round will determine whether Lula can retain the presidency or if Bolsonaro can translate his recent gains into an electoral victory.
