Trump's White Voter Approval Plummets in Six Red States, Raising Midterm Stakes

Civiqs polling shows that former President Donald Trump has moved from solid majorities to net negative ratings among white voters in six states he carried in 2024. Kentucky recorded the largest swing—a 32-point drop from a +29 net rating at the start of his second term to –3 by September 24 2026. Texas followed with a 30-point shift, Missouri 26 points, Alaska 22 points, Ohio 21 points, and Arizona 19 points. In each case, Trump’s net approval among white voters fell below zero, overturning the margins that helped him win the states in 2024.

Newsweek

White voters, particularly those without college degrees, formed the backbone of Trump’s 2024 victory. National exit polling indicated he won white voters 57 % to 42 % and white non-college voters 66 % to 32 % (NBC News). The recent erosion of that bloc threatens Republican prospects in upcoming contests.

Newsweek

When Trump took office on January 20 2025, white voter approval in Kentucky stood at 62 % with 33 % disapproval (net +29). By September 24 2026, approval slipped to 43 % and disapproval rose to 46 % (net –3). Similar patterns emerged in Texas (from a net +27 to a net –3) and Missouri (from a net +25 to a net –1). Civiqs’ online tracker recorded 132,219 responses across the period, underscoring a sustained downward trend rather than a single poll anomaly.

Newsweek

All three states host Senate races that Republicans once considered safe. In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leads incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in recent polls; a September AARP survey shows Trump at 45 % approval and 53 % disapproval among likely voters. In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico is ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton, while Ohio’s contest pits former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown against Republican Jon Husted. A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted September 8–11 found 45 % of likely voters view their congressional choice as opposition to Trump, compared with 28 % who see it as support. The same poll noted that 87 % consider the economy very important to their vote, and 82 % rate inflation similarly.

Newsweek

White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek that the “ultimate poll” was the 2024 election, which he said demonstrated nearly 80 million Americans backing Trump’s agenda. Ingle asserted that the administration had made “historic progress” and was continuing to create jobs, curb inflation, and improve housing affordability as its policies take effect.

Newsweek