Full Breakdown
Renewed Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray: Alliance, Airport Seizures, and Threat to the 2022 Peace Deal
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event
On September 23 Tigrayan forces seized the airports at Mekelle, Axum and Shire and launched attacks in Afar and Amhara, shattering the Pretoria Agreement that ended the 2020-2022 civil war and suspending Ethiopian Airlines flights to the north.
Background & Context
The 2020-2022 war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces killed an estimated 600,000 people and ended with the Pretoria Agreement on 2 November 2022, which required disarmament, the return of displaced persons and an interim administration.
In May 2025 the TPLF regained control of the Tigray regional government, prompting internal splits. On September 21 the TPLF announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, joining six other armed groups—including the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army—to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party. Relations with Eritrea have deteriorated since the 2022 peace deal.
Timeline
- September 21 – Alliance of seven opposition groups announced.
- September 23 – Airport seizures and attacks begin.
- September 24 – AU chair calls for immediate de-escalation; US ambassador condemns the offensive.
- September 25 – NetBlocks reports an internet blackout in northern Ethiopia.
Data & Statistics
Why It Matters / Impact
Seizing the airports halted air transport, limiting humanitarian aid and trade routes through the north. The fighting threatens supply lines through Djibouti and could draw in Eritrea, Sudan’s warring factions and Gulf actors, expanding regional instability.
Official Statements & Responses
- African Union – Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf urged “immediate de-escalation” and talks under the Pretoria framework.
- United States – Ambassador Ervin J. Massinga called the TPLF’s move an “unwinnable fight” and urged political dialogue.
- Ethiopian government – Spokesperson Billene Seyoum said alliance members have received financial backing from Eritrea.
- Tigray regional administration – Accused federal forces of a “genocidal invasion” and said its troops entered a defensive war.
Criticism & Opposition
Analyst Alan Boswell warned the alliance’s coordination could offset federal tactical advantages and risk broader escalation. Human-rights groups cited reports of forced recruitment by Tigrayan forces, which the TPLF denies.
On-the-Ground Reports
- Market vendor Selam Fantay in Mekelle reported “an atmosphere of fear” as residents rushed to buy food and cash.
- A humanitarian source in Afar described heavy artillery attacks around the border town of Abala.
- Residents of Lalibela in Amhara said federal troops fired heavy weapons from a camp outside the historic town.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Cause of the fighting – Tigray officials claim they are responding to a federal invasion; federal adviser Getachew Reda asserts the TPLF launched an “all-out offensive.” Independent verification is lacking.
- Casualty figures – Federal claims of >500 enemy fighters killed and >270 rebels killed in Amhara have not been corroborated by independent monitors.
What’s Next
The African Union has asked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to facilitate renewed talks; no timetable has been set. The United States’ expiration of sanctions on Eritrea on September 18 may affect Eritrean involvement, but no further policy changes have been announced.