Full Breakdown
Hurricane Nolo threatens Hawaii with flash floods, high winds and surf
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Core Event
On September 26, 2026, Hurricane Nolo was a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Its center lay about 145 miles (235 km) south of South Point on the Big Island, moving north-northeast at 5 mph. Forecasters expected Nolo to turn westward, stay south of the main islands and intensify into a major hurricane later in the weekend. While a direct landfall was not anticipated, outer rainbands were projected to bring heavy rain, flash flooding, mudslides, dangerous surf and strong gusts across the Big Island and neighboring islands.
Background & Context
Nolo arrived during an active Pacific season driven by a strong El Niño. The islands were still recovering from Hurricane Lala in August, which swept roughly 100 homes off their foundations, and Hurricane Lowell in early September, which caused widespread power outages and road damage. Saturated soils and weakened infrastructure increased vulnerability to further flooding and landslides.
Data & Statistics
- Wind: Sustained 105 mph; hurricane-force winds up to 45 miles from the center, tropical-storm-force winds up to 140 miles.
- Rainfall: Forecasts of 10-15 inches (25-38 cm) generally, with isolated amounts up to 25 inches (64 cm) on the eastern and southern Big Island; Maui 4-6 inches, other islands 1-3 inches.
- Storm surge: Expected 1-3 feet (30-91 cm) along vulnerable coastlines.
- Preparedness: A federal emergency declaration enabled FEMA to provide a 75 % cost-share for public assistance. Governor Josh Green activated more than 230 Hawaii National Guard members, secured 100 hotel rooms for displaced residents and opened ten county shelters.
Official Statements & Responses
President Donald Trump approved a pre-landfall emergency declaration, authorizing FEMA to coordinate federal assistance. Governor Green issued an emergency proclamation, mobilizing the Guard and directing state agencies to prioritize shelter operations, road-clearing and utility restoration. Mayor Kimo Alameda urged residents to complete emergency kits, stay connected to official alerts and seek shelter before flooding strikes. The National Hurricane Center cautioned the public to remain indoors and avoid travel during the storm’s peak.
On-the-Ground Reports
Local residents described a mix of anxiety and routine preparation. Andrea Gill, at Carlsmith Beach Park, said she hoped the storm would move away. Daniel Compton, visiting from Seattle, was uncertain about whether to evacuate. Keoni Kino, co-founder of the nonprofit Kuilei Cliffs, noted recent storms had felled trees and stressed the need to secure property.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Rainfall projections differed: some forecasts cited 10-15 inches for the Big Island, others up to 25 inches in isolated locations. Wind estimates also varied, with a few outlets describing Nolo as Category 1, while the National Hurricane Center maintained Category 2 status. Precise storm-surge timing and exact flood-plain impacts were not provided, leaving uncertainty for emergency planners.
What’s Next
Forecasters expect Nolo to turn westward Saturday, strengthen to a major hurricane Sunday, then accelerate away from the islands early next week. Hurricane-watch and tropical-storm-warning zones remain in effect for Hawaii County, with a flood watch covering the Big Island and Maui County through Saturday afternoon. FEMA’s public-assistance program will support debris removal, road repairs and temporary power restoration. Residents are advised to monitor updates from the National Weather Service, heed shelter orders and complete preparations for heavy rain, flooding and high surf throughout the weekend.