Full Breakdown
Netanyahu’s handling of pre-Oct 7 warnings: a deep-dive
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event – Uncommunicated warnings before the Oct 7 attack
Investigations reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received explicit warnings about a major Hamas operation from two foreign leaders — Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, and Abbas Kamel, head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service. Both warnings arrived in late September 2023. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar also transmitted a threat that “the prisons would quake” through a Shin Bet channel. Minutes of the security chiefs’ meeting on Oct 1 2023 show Netanyahu did not mention any of these warnings while urging officials to maintain calm in Gaza.
Background & Context – Diplomatic overtures and intelligence channels
In the weeks before Oct 7, Netanyahu was pursuing a U.S.–mediated normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, which he cited as a reason to avoid large-scale Gaza operations. A secret back-channel between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by former Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida, was negotiating a prisoner exchange. On Sept 14, Sinwar instructed Abu Zaida to convey that Hamas would place “cards” on the negotiating table that would cause an “earthquake.” Abu Zaida relayed the message to Mohammed Dahlan, an adviser to the Emirati president, who briefed Sheikh bin Zayed on Sept 15 2023.
Official Statements & Responses – Positions of key actors
- Benjamin Netanyahu – Denied receiving any direct warning from Sheikh bin Zayed, saying foreign intelligence would have been routed through Israel’s regular channels.
- Yoav Gallant (former defense minister) – Said he first learned of the foreign warnings from media reports and asserted that Netanyahu kept senior security officials out of the loop on sensitive U.S. conversations.
- Egyptian officials – Asserted that Kamel’s September 26 visit was intended to convey an urgent warning, though the Egyptian foreign ministry later described the claim as “a false claim.”
- UAE officials – A spokesperson noted that heads of state do not discuss security matters directly, but did not deny that President bin Zayed had spoken with Netanyahu.
Criticism & Opposition – Former officials question Netanyahu’s decisions
Former defense minister Yoav Gallant criticized Netanyahu’s handling of the warnings, noting he learned of “important conversations” with U.S. officials only after American calls sought verification.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Disagreement over existence and transmission of warnings
- UAE warning – The New York Times and several Israeli outlets report that Sheikh bin Zayed called Netanyahu in late September with a vague threat of a major Hamas attack. Netanyahu’s office and the UAE foreign ministry deny that such a direct conversation occurred.
- Egyptian warning – The Atlantic reconstruction describes Kamel’s September 26 visit and his urgent message, while Egyptian officials and Netanyahu’s office label the claim “a false claim.”
- Hamas message – Gallant confirmed a single Shin Bet transmission of Sinwar’s “prisons will quake” threat, but the content and intended target remain unclear, and no concrete operational details were provided.